VIRGINIA
CAVALIERSUVA
7-1 | Road
88
TEXAS
LONGHORNSTEX
6-3 | Home
69
AI Model Win Probability
CAVALIERS
100%
LONGHORNS
0%
CAVALIERS
--
LONGHORNS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
84.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TEX -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
UVA By 1-7 points
5.8%
UVA By 8-14 points
1.4%
TEX By 1-7 points
16.9%
TEX By 8-14 points
26.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Virginia
35
VIRGINIA
Texas
49
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Virginia
62
VIRGINIA
Texas
68
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Longhorns
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Longhorns
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Longhorns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Longhorns (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 84.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 130.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 3, 2025
UVA @ TEX
88 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+39.1% more
Texas: 13.0
vs
Virginia: 9.3
Assists (L5)
+9.9% more
Texas: 17.3
vs
Virginia: 15.8
Field Goal % (L5)
+8.6%
Texas: 55.7%
vs
Virginia: 47.1%
Free Throw % (L5)
+8.0%
Texas: 74.6%
vs
Virginia: 66.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UVA Score
35.0
88
TEX Score
49.0
69
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
40.8 / 36.9
21.0 / 50.0
Assists
17.3 / 15.8
7.0 / 18.0
Blocks
3.5 / 7.7
1.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
55.7 / 47.1
41.0 / 54.0
Free Throw %
74.6 / 66.6
68.0 / 69.0
Rebounding
41.5 / 41.6
35.0 / 34.0
Steals
6.3 / 6.5
4.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
13.0 / 9.3
7.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UVA
Advantage
30-6-0
(83.3%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
TEX
21-15-0
(58.3%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UVA
17-17-2
(50.0%)
Margin: 11.6
ATS +/-: +1.0
TEX
Advantage
20-15-0
(57.1%)
Margin: 6.6
ATS +/-: +0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
UVA
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
TEX
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9%
Total +/-: +2.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
UVA
TEX
UVA
ML
58%
21-15
67%
24-12
56%
19-15
72%
26-10
ATS
56%
20-16
75%
27-9
56%
19-15
72%
26-10
TTL
64%
23-13
53%
19-17
100%
34-0
100%
36-0
Contextual Game News
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