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MISSISSIPPI STATE

BULLDOGSMSST

4-4  |  Road

85
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 9:15 PM ET
McCamish Pavilion
View Odds Details →

GEORGIA TECH

YELLOW JACKETSGT

5-4  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
YELLOW JACKETS
0%
BULLDOGS --
YELLOW JACKETS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
136.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
GEORGIA TECH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Georgia Tech)
BulldogsMSST (-3.5) 0 Yellow JacketsGT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

15.9%

Yellow Jackets Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around GT -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (GT)

MSST By 1-7 points

10.7%

MSST By 8-14 points

3.3%

GT By 1-7 points

23.0%

GT By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
63
MISSISSIPPI STATE
73
GEORGIA TECH
Simulated Score
68
MISSISSIPPI STATE
72
GEORGIA TECH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Yellow Jackets Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Yellow Jackets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Yellow Jackets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Yellow Jackets (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 136.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 MSST @ GT 85 - 73
Nov 28, 2023 MSST @ GT 59 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +32.9% more
Georgia Tech: 17.4 vs Mississippi State: 13.1
Field Goal % (L5) +1.9%
Georgia Tech: 44.6% vs Mississippi State: 42.7%
Steals (L5) +18.6% more
Mississippi State: 7.9 vs Georgia Tech: 6.4
Free Throw % (L5) +8.2%
Mississippi State: 66.9% vs Georgia Tech: 58.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MSST Score 63.0 85
GT Score 73.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.6 / 31.1 27.0 / 27.0
Assists 17.4 / 13.1 16.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.6 / 3.7 3.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 42.7 34.0 / 51.0
Free Throw % 58.7 / 66.9 65.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 38.1 / 39.4 42.0 / 47.0
Steals 6.4 / 7.9 7.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 11.5 / 10.9 5.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
88%MONEY12%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MSST Advantage
13-19-0 (40.6%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
GT
11-20-0 (35.5%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MSST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -4.4
GT Advantage
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -3.6 ATS +/-: -2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MSST
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.1
GT
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
GT
MSST
GT
MSST
ML
61% 19-12
66% 21-11
63% 19-11
55% 17-14
ATS
55% 17-14
56% 18-14
63% 19-11
55% 17-14
TTL
61% 19-12
59% 19-13
100% 30-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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