Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mustangs @ Commodores SMU @ VAN

SMU

MUSTANGSSMU

8-0  |  Road

69
FINAL
Wed, Dec 3 • 9:15 PM ET
Memorial Gymnasium (TN)
View Odds Details →

VANDERBILT

COMMODORESVAN

8-0  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
MUSTANGS
100%
📊
COMMODORES
0%
MUSTANGS --
COMMODORES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
VANDERBILT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Vanderbilt)
MustangsSMU (-3.5) 0 CommodoresVAN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mustangs Cover

3.6%

Commodores Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around VAN -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (VAN)

SMU By 1-7 points

2.7%

SMU By 8-14 points

0.5%

VAN By 1-7 points

10.7%

VAN By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
63
SMU
81
VANDERBILT
Simulated Score
71
SMU
78
VANDERBILT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Commodores Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Commodores Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Commodores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Commodores (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 3, 2025 SMU @ VAN 69 - 88
Dec 4, 2021 VAN @ SMU 72 - 84
Jan 4, 2020 SMU @ VAN 92 - 81
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.3%
Vanderbilt: 41.2% vs SMU: 34.9%
Free Throw % (L5) +5.1%
Vanderbilt: 76.0% vs SMU: 70.9%
Field Goal % (L5) +2.5%
Vanderbilt: 50.8% vs SMU: 48.3%
Rebounding (L5) +12.2% more
SMU: 44.2 vs Vanderbilt: 38.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SMU Score 63.0 69
VAN Score 81.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 41.2 / 34.9 25.0 / 12.0
Assists 18.9 / 19.3 20.0 / 12.0
Blocks 4.9 / 4.6 8.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 50.8 / 48.3 57.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 70.9 83.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 38.8 / 44.2 30.0 / 38.0
Steals 9.4 / 9.0 7.0 / 2.0
Turnovers 11.1 / 12.1 5.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SMU
20-14-0 (58.8%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
VAN Advantage
27-9-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SMU
14-19-1 (42.4%)
Margin: 6.1 ATS +/-: +0.4
VAN Advantage
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
SMU
21-12-1
O: 63.6% / U: 36.4% Total +/-: +2.5
VAN
17-19-0
O: 47.2% / U: 52.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
VAN
SMU
VAN
SMU
ML
69% 25-11
59% 20-14
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
ATS
78% 28-8
62% 21-13
56% 18-14
73% 24-9
TTL
58% 21-15
56% 19-15
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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