Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Aggies @ Jaguars NMSU @ USA

NEW MEXICO STATE

AGGIESNMSU

6-0  |  Road

75
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Leonard E. Merrell Center
View Odds Details →

SOUTH ALABAMA

JAGUARSUSA

7-1  |  Home

77
AI Model Win Probability
AGGIES
100%
📊
JAGUARS
0%
AGGIES --
JAGUARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
138.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
SOUTH ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (South Alabama)
AggiesNMSU (-3.5) 0 JaguarsUSA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Aggies Cover

21.2%

Jaguars Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around USA -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USA)

NMSU By 1-7 points

13.7%

NMSU By 8-14 points

4.8%

USA By 1-7 points

25.3%

USA By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
65
NEW MEXICO STATE
73
SOUTH ALABAMA
Simulated Score
68
NEW MEXICO STATE
75
SOUTH ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jaguars Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jaguars Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Jaguars (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 138.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 NMSU @ USA 75 - 77
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +13.8% more
South Alabama: 12.8 vs New Mexico State: 11.2
Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
South Alabama: 46.1% vs New Mexico State: 41.9%
Turnovers (L5) +30.7% more
New Mexico State: 11.6 vs South Alabama: 8.0
Blocks (L5) +17.9% more
New Mexico State: 2.7 vs South Alabama: 2.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NMSU Score 65.0 75
USA Score 73.0 77
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.8 / 32.0 38.0 / 24.0
Assists 12.8 / 11.2 12.0 / 18.0
Blocks 2.2 / 2.7 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 41.9 44.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 70.1 / 71.0 82.0 / 77.0
Rebounding 41.3 / 41.7 27.0 / 41.0
Steals 7.1 / 7.3 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 8.0 / 11.6 7.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
18%MONEY82%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NMSU
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
USA Advantage
21-12-0 (63.6%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NMSU
14-15-0 (48.3%)
Margin: 3.1 ATS +/-: -1.4
USA Advantage
17-14-0 (54.8%)
Margin: 4.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
NMSU
17-11-1
O: 60.7% / U: 39.3% Total +/-: +3.2
USA
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USA
NMSU
USA
NMSU
ML
47% 15-17
61% 19-12
57% 17-13
67% 20-10
ATS
53% 17-15
65% 20-11
57% 17-13
67% 20-10
TTL
66% 21-11
45% 14-17
100% 30-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Rylan Griffen Secures Spot on Texas A&M's 2026-27 Roster After N…
aggieswire 14 hours, 6 minutes ago
Duke Dominates ACC Preseason Poll, But Wide-Open Race Looms Behi…
yahoo 3 days, 7 hours ago
Jalen Shelley Compares Texas A&M Basketball's Press to Minnesota…
aggieswire 4 days, 14 hours ago
Texas A&M's Blowout Loss to LSU: Five Critical Takeaways
headtopics 1 week, 4 days ago
Texas A&M vs. LSU: Aggies' Playoff Hopes Hang in the Balance as …
si 1 week, 5 days ago