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SACRAMENTO STATE

HORNETSSAC

4-5  |  Road

88
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Foster Pavilion
View Odds Details →

BAYLOR

BEARSBAY

5-1  |  Home

110
AI Model Win Probability
HORNETS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
HORNETS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
118.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.0
BAYLOR
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.0 points (Baylor)
HornetsSAC (-3.5) 0 BearsBAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hornets Cover

1.4%

Bears Cover

98.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around BAY -22.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAY)

SAC By 1-7 points

1.1%

SAC By 8-14 points

0.1%

BAY By 1-7 points

5.8%

BAY By 8-14 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
48
SACRAMENTO STATE
70
BAYLOR
Simulated Score
61
SACRAMENTO STATE
88
BAYLOR
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+29.5) Win
Proj Spread: -22.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u158.5 Loss
Proj Total: 118.0
D
Sim u158.5 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 SAC @ BAY 88 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +14.4% more
Baylor: 15.1 vs Sacramento State: 13.2
Field Goal % (L5) +10.3%
Baylor: 46.8% vs Sacramento State: 36.5%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.7%
Baylor: 36.1% vs Sacramento State: 27.4%
Blocks (L5) +42.4% more
Sacramento State: 4.6 vs Baylor: 2.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SAC Score 48.0 88
BAY Score 70.0 110
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 36.1 / 27.4 27.0 / 31.0
Assists 15.1 / 13.2 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 2.7 / 4.6 1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal % 46.8 / 36.5 60.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 77.7 / 77.2 76.0 / 87.0
Rebounding 38.5 / 40.1 40.0 / 30.0
Steals 5.9 / 8.0 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 11.4 12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
1%MONEY99%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
28%MONEY72%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SAC
10-21-0 (32.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
BAY Advantage
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SAC Advantage
13-15-0 (46.4%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: 0.0
BAY
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 5.3 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
SAC
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +1.6
BAY
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAY
SAC
BAY
SAC
ML
58% 19-14
57% 17-13
53% 17-15
87% 26-4
ATS
58% 19-14
73% 22-8
53% 17-15
87% 27-4
TTL
45% 15-18
60% 18-12
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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