Home / NBA Projections NBA / Trail Blazers @ Raptors POR @ TOR

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

8-12  |  Road

118
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 7:30 PM ET
Scotiabank Arena
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

14-7  |  Home

121
AI Model Win Probability
TRAIL BLAZERS
100%
📊
RAPTORS
0%
TRAIL BLAZERS --
RAPTORS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
216.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Toronto)
Trail BlazersPOR (-3.5) 0 RaptorsTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Trail Blazers Cover

27.4%

Raptors Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TOR -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

POR By 1-7 points

16.9%

POR By 8-14 points

6.8%

TOR By 1-7 points

26.8%

TOR By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
105
PORTLAND
111
TORONTO
Simulated Score
108
PORTLAND
112
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Raptors Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Raptors Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Raptors (-5) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Raptors (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u231.5 Loss
Proj Total: 216.0
D
Sim u231.5 Win
Proj Total: 220.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 23, 2026 TOR @ POR 110 - 98
Dec 2, 2025 POR @ TOR 118 - 121
Apr 3, 2025 POR @ TOR 112 - 103
Mar 16, 2025 TOR @ POR 102 - 105
Mar 9, 2024 TOR @ POR 118 - 128
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +26.5% more
Toronto: 8.7 vs Portland: 6.8
Assists (L5) +24.6% more
Toronto: 28.2 vs Portland: 22.6
Field Goal % (L5) +2.6%
Toronto: 44.6% vs Portland: 41.9%
Blocks (L5) +32.6% more
Portland: 6.2 vs Toronto: 4.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
POR Score 105.0 118
TOR Score 111.0 121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.1 / 31.6 37.0 / 38.0
Assists 28.2 / 22.6 33.0 / 23.0
Blocks 4.2 / 6.2 3.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 44.6 / 41.9 53.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 70.6 / 73.6 67.0 / 66.0
Rebounding 44.7 / 48.7 43.0 / 39.0
Steals 8.7 / 6.8 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 15.6 / 16.2 18.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
TOR Advantage
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
POR
TOR
POR
ML
55% 57-47
53% 56-49
55% 48-39
55% 49-40
ATS
61% 62-40-2
62% 65-39-1
55% 48-39
55% 49-40
TTL
60% 62-42
56% 58-46-1
100% 87-0
100% 89-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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