Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Buccaneers @ Flyers ETSU @ DAY

EAST TENNESSEE STATE

BUCCANEERSETSU

6-1  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 7:00 PM ET
UD Arena
View Odds Details →

DAYTON

FLYERSDAY

6-2  |  Home

88
AI Model Win Probability
BUCCANEERS
0%
📊
FLYERS
100%
BUCCANEERS --
FLYERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
126.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (East Tennessee State)
BuccaneersETSU (-3.5) 0 FlyersDAY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Buccaneers Cover

72.6%

Flyers Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ETSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ETSU)

ETSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

ETSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

DAY By 1-7 points

16.9%

DAY By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
66
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
60
DAYTON
Simulated Score
68
EAST TENNESSEE STATE
81
DAYTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Flyers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Buccaneers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Flyers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 126.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 149.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 ETSU @ DAY 71 - 88
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +19.6% more
East Tennessee State: 18.0 vs Dayton: 14.5
Steals (L5) +16.7% more
East Tennessee State: 9.7 vs Dayton: 8.1
Field Goal % (L5) +5.6%
East Tennessee State: 51.3% vs Dayton: 45.6%
Free Throw % (L5) +2.8%
East Tennessee State: 64.9% vs Dayton: 62.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ETSU Score 66.0 71
DAY Score 60.0 88
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.7 / 36.1 27.0 / 33.0
Assists 14.5 / 18.0 19.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.2 / 3.9 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 45.6 / 51.3 54.0 / 46.0
Free Throw % 62.1 / 64.9 80.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 35.0 / 36.3 28.0 / 27.0
Steals 8.1 / 9.7 14.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 10.1 15.0 / 22.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
18%MONEY82%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
67%MONEY33%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ETSU Advantage
23-11-0 (67.7%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
DAY
25-12-0 (67.6%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ETSU
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +0.5
DAY Advantage
18-19-0 (48.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ETSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +2.5
DAY
13-24-0
O: 35.1% / U: 64.9% Total +/-: -2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAY
ETSU
DAY
ETSU
ML
65% 24-13
42% 14-19
64% 23-13
70% 23-10
ATS
68% 25-12
58% 19-14
64% 23-13
70% 23-10
TTL
57% 21-16
45% 15-18
100% 36-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud, Admits Demanding $9,000…
bleacherreport 32 minutes ago
Kerr Kriisa Pleads Guilty to Wire Fraud in $9,000 Scheme
wsls 44 minutes ago
K-State vs Houston: Week 6 Showdown with Big 12 Title Implicatio…
si 6 hours, 39 minutes ago
Big Ten Commissioner Tony Petitti Denies Any Expansion Talks Ami…
saturdaydownsouth 6 hours, 46 minutes ago
CareSource Invitational Turns Tennis Center into Basketball Show…
wcpo 19 hours, 30 minutes ago