Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Panthers @ Bears GAST @ MER

GEORGIA STATE

PANTHERSGAST

1-7  |  Road

67
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Hawkins Arena
View Odds Details →

MERCER

BEARSMER

5-2  |  Home

78
AI Model Win Probability
PANTHERS
100%
📊
BEARS
0%
PANTHERS --
BEARS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.0
MERCER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.0 points (Mercer)
PanthersGAST (-3.5) 0 BearsMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Panthers Cover

15.9%

Bears Cover

84.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MER -10.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MER)

GAST By 1-7 points

10.7%

GAST By 8-14 points

3.3%

MER By 1-7 points

23.0%

MER By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
75
GEORGIA STATE
85
MERCER
Simulated Score
68
GEORGIA STATE
71
MERCER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bears Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bears Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.0
D
Sim Bears (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 139.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 GAST @ MER 67 - 78
Dec 28, 2024 MER @ GAST 71 - 68
Dec 9, 2023 GAST @ MER 60 - 64
Nov 15, 2022 MER @ GAST 83 - 85
Dec 4, 2021 GAST @ MER 77 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +61.3% more
Mercer: 15.8 vs Georgia State: 9.8
Steals (L5) +35.1% more
Mercer: 8.8 vs Georgia State: 6.5
Blocks (L5) +22.6% more
Mercer: 2.8 vs Georgia State: 2.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.2%
Mercer: 39.2% vs Georgia State: 25.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
GAST Score 75.0 67
MER Score 85.0 78
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 39.2 / 25.0 28.0 / 28.0
Assists 15.8 / 9.8 11.0 / 9.0
Blocks 2.8 / 2.3 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.1 / 32.6 41.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 75.9 / 77.1 77.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 35.8 / 35.6 42.0 / 33.0
Steals 8.8 / 6.5 10.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.8 / 12.7 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
15%MONEY85%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
13%MONEY87%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
GAST
10-22-0 (31.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
MER Advantage
19-13-0 (59.4%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
GAST
13-17-0 (43.3%)
Margin: -4.3 ATS +/-: -1.5
MER Advantage
19-10-0 (65.5%)
Margin: 7.2 ATS +/-: +1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
GAST
14-16-0
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3% Total +/-: -2.4
MER
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MER
GAST
MER
GAST
ML
55% 17-14
56% 18-14
71% 22-9
71% 22-9
ATS
58% 18-13
59% 19-13
71% 22-9
71% 22-9
TTL
61% 19-12
59% 19-13
100% 31-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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