Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bearkats @ Cowboys SHSU @ OKST

SAM HOUSTON

BEARKATSSHSU

5-2  |  Road

83
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Gallagher-Iba Arena
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA STATE

COWBOYSOKST

7-0  |  Home

93
AI Model Win Probability
BEARKATS
0%
📊
COWBOYS
100%
BEARKATS --
COWBOYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
123.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
SAM HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Sam Houston)
BearkatsSHSU (-3.5) 0 CowboysOKST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bearkats Cover

95.5%

Cowboys Cover

4.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around SHSU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SHSU)

SHSU By 1-7 points

12.2%

SHSU By 8-14 points

23.0%

OKST By 1-7 points

3.3%

OKST By 8-14 points

0.6%

AI Model Projected Score
70
SAM HOUSTON
53
OKLAHOMA STATE
Simulated Score
62
SAM HOUSTON
75
OKLAHOMA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bearkats Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cowboys Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bearkats (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -17.0
D
Sim Cowboys (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 123.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 SHSU @ OKST 83 - 93
Nov 12, 2023 SHSU @ OKST 70 - 85
Dec 6, 2022 SHSU @ OKST 51 - 65
Key Model Drivers
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +6.4%
Sam Houston: 40.6% vs Oklahoma State: 34.1%
Blocks (L5) +59.2% more
Oklahoma State: 3.9 vs Sam Houston: 2.5
Turnovers (L5) +29.3% more
Oklahoma State: 13.8 vs Sam Houston: 10.7
Free Throw % (L5) +3.5%
Oklahoma State: 78.0% vs Sam Houston: 74.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SHSU Score 70.0 83
OKST Score 53.0 93
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 34.1 / 40.6 26.0 / 38.0
Assists 17.6 / 17.1 17.0 / 17.0
Blocks 3.9 / 2.5 0.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 48.8 / 49.5 52.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 78.0 / 74.6 68.0 / 82.0
Rebounding 39.6 / 40.2 43.0 / 34.0
Steals 7.7 / 7.8 5.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 13.8 / 10.7 15.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
46%MONEY54%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
43%MONEY57%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SHSU Advantage
22-12-0 (64.7%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
OKST
20-15-0 (57.1%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SHSU Advantage
20-11-0 (64.5%)
Margin: 7.1 ATS +/-: +3.5
OKST
16-19-0 (45.7%)
Margin: 0.7 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
SHSU
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9% Total +/-: +2.2
OKST
20-15-0
O: 57.1% / U: 42.9% Total +/-: +2.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKST
SHSU
OKST
SHSU
ML
60% 21-14
55% 18-15
66% 21-11
74% 23-8
ATS
57% 20-15
64% 21-12
66% 21-11
74% 23-8
TTL
57% 20-15
48% 16-17
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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