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VALPARAISO

BEACONSVAL

5-2  |  Road

72
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 8:00 PM ET
Fiserv Forum
View Odds Details →

MARQUETTE

GOLDEN EAGLESMARQ

4-4  |  Home

75
AI Model Win Probability
BEACONS
100%
📊
GOLDEN EAGLES
0%
BEACONS --
GOLDEN EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
MARQUETTE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Marquette)
BeaconsVAL (-3.5) 0 Golden EaglesMARQ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Beacons Cover

3.6%

Golden Eagles Cover

96.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MARQ -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MARQ)

VAL By 1-7 points

2.7%

VAL By 8-14 points

0.5%

MARQ By 1-7 points

10.7%

MARQ By 8-14 points

21.6%

AI Model Projected Score
72
VALPARAISO
90
MARQUETTE
Simulated Score
65
VALPARAISO
78
MARQUETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Golden Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Golden Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 VAL @ MARQ 72 - 75
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +36.2% more
Marquette: 16.0 vs Valparaiso: 11.8
Steals (L5) +18.2% more
Marquette: 8.4 vs Valparaiso: 7.1
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Marquette: 43.4% vs Valparaiso: 40.7%
Blocks (L5) +72.3% more
Valparaiso: 7.2 vs Marquette: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
VAL Score 72.0 72
MARQ Score 90.0 75
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 32.1 / 34.0 29.0 / 31.0
Assists 16.0 / 11.8 12.0 / 14.0
Blocks 2.0 / 7.2 3.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 40.7 35.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 70.3 / 74.3 84.0 / 67.0
Rebounding 37.4 / 39.9 38.0 / 40.0
Steals 8.4 / 7.1 9.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 10.0 / 9.3 14.0 / 21.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
24%MONEY76%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
VAL Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
MARQ
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
VAL Advantage
18-13-1 (58.1%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: +2.7
MARQ
12-19-1 (38.7%)
Margin: -0.6 ATS +/-: -1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
VAL
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: -0.9
MARQ
15-17-0
O: 46.9% / U: 53.1% Total +/-: -1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MARQ
VAL
MARQ
VAL
ML
59% 19-13
48% 16-17
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
ATS
53% 17-15
52% 17-16
62% 20-12
61% 20-13
TTL
50% 16-16
61% 20-13
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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