Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Waves ACU @ PEPP

ABILENE CHRISTIAN

WILDCATSACU

5-3  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 9:00 PM ET
Firestone Fieldhouse
View Odds Details →

PEPPERDINE

WAVESPEPP

3-5  |  Home

63
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
0%
📊
WAVES
100%
WILDCATS --
WAVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
162.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (Abilene Christian)
WildcatsACU (-3.5) 0 WavesPEPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

96.4%

Waves Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ACU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ACU)

ACU By 1-7 points

10.7%

ACU By 8-14 points

21.6%

PEPP By 1-7 points

2.7%

PEPP By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
90
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
72
PEPPERDINE
Simulated Score
73
ABILENE CHRISTIAN
78
PEPPERDINE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Wildcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Waves Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Wildcats (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Waves (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 162.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 ACU @ PEPP 71 - 63
Nov 16, 2019 PEPP @ ACU 73 - 69
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +65.6% more
Abilene Christian: 12.9 vs Pepperdine: 4.4
Turnovers (L5) +19.9% more
Abilene Christian: 16.3 vs Pepperdine: 13.1
Rebounding (L5) +10.1% more
Abilene Christian: 39.6 vs Pepperdine: 35.5
Field Goal % (L5) +3.7%
Abilene Christian: 43.2% vs Pepperdine: 39.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ACU Score 90.0 71
PEPP Score 72.0 63
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.0 / 29.9 35.0 / 36.0
Assists 14.2 / 14.6 13.0 / 17.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.6 1.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 39.5 / 43.2 42.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 82.0 / 62.2 76.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 35.5 / 39.6 27.0 / 29.0
Steals 4.4 / 12.9 2.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.1 / 16.3 11.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
72%MONEY28%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ACU Advantage
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
PEPP
9-23-0 (28.1%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ACU
13-16-1 (44.8%)
Margin: -2.1 ATS +/-: -2.6
PEPP Advantage
14-16-0 (46.7%)
Margin: -7.3 ATS +/-: -0.6
⚖️ Over/Under
ACU
17-13-0
O: 56.7% / U: 43.3% Total +/-: +1.4
PEPP
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PEPP
ACU
PEPP
ACU
ML
62% 20-12
67% 22-11
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
ATS
56% 18-14
55% 18-15
69% 22-10
70% 23-10
TTL
50% 16-16
58% 19-14
100% 32-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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