UC SAN DIEGO
TRITONSUCSD
7-1 | Road
70
NEVADA
WOLF PACKNEV
6-3 | Home
76
AI Model Win Probability
TRITONS
0%
WOLF PACK
100%
TRITONS
--
WOLF PACK
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
166.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
UC SAN DIEGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (UC San Diego)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UCSD -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UCSD)
UCSD By 1-7 points
16.9%
UCSD By 8-14 points
26.2%
NEV By 1-7 points
5.8%
NEV By 8-14 points
1.4%
AI Model Projected Score
UC San Diego
90
UC SAN DIEGO
Nevada
76
NEVADA
Simulated Score
UC San Diego
70
UC SAN DIEGO
Nevada
75
NEVADA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tritons
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Wolf Pack
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tritons (-5.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim
Wolf Pack (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o149.5
Loss
Proj Total: 166.0
D
Sim
u149.5
Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 2, 2025
UCSD @ NEV
70 - 76
Dec 14, 2022
UCSD @ NEV
56 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+10.3% more
UC San Diego: 7.2
vs
Nevada: 6.4
Field Goal % (L5)
+10.3%
UC San Diego: 53.9%
vs
Nevada: 43.6%
Assists (L5)
+10.0% more
UC San Diego: 16.9
vs
Nevada: 15.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+6.3%
UC San Diego: 48.0%
vs
Nevada: 41.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
UCSD Score
90.0
70
NEV Score
76.0
76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.7 / 48.0
35.0 / 26.0
Assists
15.2 / 16.9
19.0 / 8.0
Blocks
4.1 / 2.2
6.0 / 2.0
Field Goal %
43.6 / 53.9
47.0 / 41.0
Free Throw %
76.7 / 59.6
59.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
32.5 / 32.7
45.0 / 36.0
Steals
6.4 / 7.2
3.0 / 5.0
Turnovers
8.7 / 8.7
8.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCSD
Advantage
23-11-0
(67.7%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
NEV
24-13-0
(64.9%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCSD
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: -0.3
NEV
Advantage
22-15-0
(59.5%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
UCSD
12-20-0
O: 37.5% / U: 62.5%
Total +/-: -6.0
NEV
21-16-0
O: 56.8% / U: 43.2%
Total +/-: +2.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NEV
UCSD
NEV
UCSD
ML
62%
23-14
56%
19-15
73%
27-10
65%
22-12
ATS
73%
27-10
50%
17-17
73%
27-10
65%
22-12
TTL
49%
18-19
62%
21-13
100%
37-0
100%
34-0
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