WILLIAM & MARY
TRIBEW&M
8-2 | Road
83
DUQUESNE
DUKESDUQ
5-3 | Home
79
AI Model Win Probability
TRIBE
0%
DUKES
100%
TRIBE
--
DUKES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
154.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-20.0
WILLIAM & MARY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +20.0 points (William & Mary)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around W&M -20.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (W&M)
W&M By 1-7 points
8.0%
W&M By 8-14 points
18.6%
DUQ By 1-7 points
1.7%
DUQ By 8-14 points
0.3%
AI Model Projected Score
William & Mary
87
WILLIAM & MARY
Duquesne
67
DUQUESNE
Simulated Score
William & Mary
63
WILLIAM & MARY
Duquesne
77
DUQUESNE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tribe
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Dukes
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tribe (-5.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -20.0
D
Sim
Dukes (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u170.5
Win
Proj Total: 154.0
D
Sim
u170.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 2, 2025
W&M @ DUQ
83 - 79
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+56.5% more
William & Mary: 4.9
vs
Duquesne: 2.1
Rebounding (L5)
+12.7% more
William & Mary: 37.8
vs
Duquesne: 33.0
Free Throw % (L5)
+4.3%
William & Mary: 73.9%
vs
Duquesne: 69.6%
Turnovers (L5)
+16.5% more
Duquesne: 16.5
vs
William & Mary: 14.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
W&M Score
87.0
83
DUQ Score
67.0
79
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
41.6 / 30.9
28.0 / 50.0
Assists
18.3 / 19.6
13.0 / 20.0
Blocks
2.1 / 4.9
3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
55.6 / 52.3
46.0 / 51.0
Free Throw %
69.6 / 73.9
71.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
33.0 / 37.8
36.0 / 24.0
Steals
9.8 / 9.0
9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
16.5 / 14.1
21.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
W&M
Advantage
20-12-0
(62.5%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
DUQ
18-15-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
W&M
Advantage
16-14-0
(53.3%)
Margin: 5.4
ATS +/-: +0.8
DUQ
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 3.1
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
W&M
14-15-1
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7%
Total +/-: -1.8
DUQ
16-15-0
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUQ
W&M
DUQ
W&M
ML
53%
17-15
55%
17-14
58%
18-13
61%
19-12
ATS
69%
22-10
63%
19-11-1
58%
18-13
61%
19-12
TTL
50%
16-16
61%
19-12
100%
31-0
100%
31-0
