Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Mavericks @ Red Wolves UTA @ ARST

UT ARLINGTON

MAVERICKSUTA

6-2  |  Road

63
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 8:00 PM ET
First National Bank Arena
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

RED WOLVESARST

5-3  |  Home

83
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
100%
📊
RED WOLVES
0%
MAVERICKS --
RED WOLVES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
187.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Arkansas State)
MavericksUTA (-3.5) 0 Red WolvesARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mavericks Cover

0.3%

Red Wolves Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ARST -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

UTA By 1-7 points

0.3%

UTA By 8-14 points

0.0%

ARST By 1-7 points

2.2%

ARST By 8-14 points

8.0%

AI Model Projected Score
80
UT ARLINGTON
107
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
70
UT ARLINGTON
75
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Red Wolves Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Wolves Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Red Wolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim Red Wolves (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 187.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 145.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 UTA @ ARST 63 - 83
Dec 12, 2024 UTA @ ARST 79 - 83
Feb 19, 2022 ARST @ UTA 58 - 49
Jan 20, 2022 UTA @ ARST 70 - 75
Feb 27, 2021 ARST @ UTA 56 - 64
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +20.1% more
Arkansas State: 15.3 vs UT Arlington: 12.7
Rebounding (L5) +15.8% more
Arkansas State: 40.9 vs UT Arlington: 35.3
Free Throw % (L5) +7.4%
Arkansas State: 80.7% vs UT Arlington: 73.3%
Blocks (L5) +23.4% more
UT Arlington: 4.3 vs Arkansas State: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UTA Score 80.0 63
ARST Score 107.0 83
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.5 / 35.7 24.0 / 5.0
Assists 15.3 / 12.7 16.0 / 4.0
Blocks 3.3 / 4.3 1.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 41.3 / 47.6 48.0 / 37.0
Free Throw % 80.7 / 73.3 72.0 / 62.0
Rebounding 40.9 / 35.3 41.0 / 37.0
Steals 7.6 / 7.3 9.0 / 11.0
Turnovers 15.0 / 14.3 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
8%MONEY92%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UTA
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
ARST Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UTA Advantage
17-13-0 (56.7%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: +1.6
ARST
15-15-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 5.8 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
UTA
7-23-0
O: 23.3% / U: 76.7% Total +/-: -4.7
ARST
15-14-1
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
UTA
ARST
UTA
ML
48% 15-16
50% 16-16
53% 16-14
62% 20-12
ATS
58% 18-13
59% 19-13
53% 16-14
62% 20-12
TTL
61% 19-12
53% 17-15
100% 30-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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