Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Bulldogs @ Seminoles UGA @ FSU

GEORGIA

BULLDOGSUGA

7-1  |  Road

107
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 9:00 PM ET
Tucker Center
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

SEMINOLESFSU

5-2  |  Home

73
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
📊
SEMINOLES
0%
BULLDOGS --
SEMINOLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
148.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Florida State)
BulldogsUGA (-3.5) 0 SeminolesFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bulldogs Cover

21.2%

Seminoles Cover

78.8%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FSU -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

UGA By 1-7 points

13.7%

UGA By 8-14 points

4.8%

FSU By 1-7 points

25.3%

FSU By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
70
GEORGIA
78
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
70
GEORGIA
74
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Seminoles Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Seminoles Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Seminoles (+1.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
D
Sim Seminoles (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u176.5 Loss
Proj Total: 148.0
D
Sim u176.5 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 UGA @ FSU 107 - 73
Nov 29, 2023 UGA @ FSU 68 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +16.2% more
Florida State: 11.7 vs Georgia: 10.1
Turnovers (L5) +15.0% more
Florida State: 13.6 vs Georgia: 11.8
Blocks (L5) +43.0% more
Georgia: 8.6 vs Florida State: 4.9
Assists (L5) +13.4% more
Georgia: 18.6 vs Florida State: 16.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UGA Score 70.0 107
FSU Score 78.0 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 27.7 / 33.3 27.0 / 37.0
Assists 16.1 / 18.6 9.0 / 20.0
Blocks 4.9 / 8.6 6.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 38.9 / 48.9 39.0 / 57.0
Free Throw % 64.3 / 74.8 50.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 39.4 / 42.5 27.0 / 48.0
Steals 11.7 / 10.1 8.0 / 8.0
Turnovers 13.6 / 11.8 11.0 / 14.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
46%MONEY54%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UGA Advantage
22-11-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
FSU
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UGA
15-17-1 (46.9%)
Margin: 9.6 ATS +/-: +0.3
FSU Advantage
19-13-1 (59.4%)
Margin: 2.4 ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
UGA
18-15-0
O: 54.6% / U: 45.5% Total +/-: +4.9
FSU
17-16-0
O: 51.5% / U: 48.5% Total +/-: -2.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
UGA
FSU
UGA
ML
64% 21-12
67% 22-11
59% 19-13
56% 18-14
ATS
55% 18-15
61% 20-13
59% 19-13
56% 18-14
TTL
48% 16-17
64% 21-12
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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