DALLAS
STARSDAL
17-5-4 | Road
2
NEW YORK
RANGERSNYR
13-12-2 | Home
3
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Igor Shesterkin
#31 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 2.99 | 0.927 | -- |
| Igor Shesterkin | None-None | 1.97 | 0.923 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.99
GAA
Ldr 1.97
0.927 Ldr
Save %
0.923
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
STARS
100%
RANGERS
0%
STARS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYR -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYR)
DAL By 1 goal
2.8%
DAL By 2-3 goals
1.2%
NYR By 1 goal
12.1%
NYR By 2-3 goals
37.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
1
DALLAS
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Dallas
2
DALLAS
New York
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -3.0
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
D
Sim
u5.5
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 11, 2026
NYR @ DAL
0 - 2
Dec 2, 2025
DAL @ NYR
2 - 3
Jan 7, 2025
DAL @ NYR
5 - 4
Dec 20, 2024
NYR @ DAL
3 - 1
Feb 20, 2024
DAL @ NYR
1 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+53.3% more
New York: 29.1
vs
Dallas: 19.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+45.4% more
New York: 16.1
vs
Dallas: 11.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.9%
New York: 58.0%
vs
Dallas: 51.2%
Takeaways (L5)
+40.1% more
Dallas: 5.5
vs
New York: 3.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
1.0
2
NYR Score
4.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
16.1 / 11.1
14.0 / 14.0
Faceoff %
58.0 / 51.2
45.0 / 55.0
Hits
29.1 / 19.0
27.0 / 17.0
Power Play %
2151.0 / 3525.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
21.6 / 26.2
41.0 / 26.0
Takeaways
3.3 / 5.5
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYR
DAL
NYR
DAL
ML
80%
4-1
33%
1-2
40%
2-3
33%
1-2
ATS
80%
4-1
0%
0-3
60%
3-2
33%
1-2
TTL
60%
3-2
100%
3-0
60%
3-2
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Islanders Lock Up Czech Blueliner Vladimir Dravecky with Three-Y…
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Islanders Defy Doubters with Four Stars on ESPN Top 100 List