OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
12-9-4 | Road
5
MONTREAL
CANADIENSMTL
13-8-3 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Sam Montembeault
#35 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 2.02 | 0.909 | -- |
| Sam Montembeault | None-None | 5.01 | 0.828 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.02 Ldr
GAA
5.01
0.909 Ldr
Save %
0.828
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
CANADIENS
100%
SENATORS
--
CANADIENS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
17.5%
OTT By 2-3 goals
37.2%
MTL By 1 goal
6.6%
MTL By 2-3 goals
3.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Montreal
2
MONTREAL
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Montreal
4
MONTREAL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Canadiens
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Canadiens (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 6.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 11, 2026
MTL @ OTT
3 - 2
Jan 17, 2026
MTL @ OTT
6 - 5
Dec 2, 2025
OTT @ MTL
5 - 2
Nov 1, 2025
OTT @ MTL
3 - 4
Apr 11, 2025
MTL @ OTT
2 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+8.5% more
Ottawa: 25.3
vs
Montreal: 23.2
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.5%
Ottawa: 54.7%
vs
Montreal: 46.2%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+53.2% more
Montreal: 18.4
vs
Ottawa: 12.0
Power Play % (L5)
+20.5%
Montreal: 29.3%
vs
Ottawa: 8.8%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
4.0
5
MTL Score
2.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
18.4 / 12.0
16.0 / 16.0
Faceoff %
46.2 / 54.7
47.1 / 52.9
Hits
23.2 / 25.3
33.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
29.3 / 8.8
66.7 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
22.7 / 22.3
22.0 / 29.0
Takeaways
5.5 / 4.9
4.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTL
OTT
MTL
OTT
ML
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
ATS
67%
2-1
0%
0-3
100%
3-0
67%
2-1
TTL
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
Contextual Game News
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