TAMPA BAY
LIGHTNINGTB
16-7-2 | Road
1
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
13-10-3 | Home
2
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Andrei Vasilevskiy
#88 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrei Vasilevskiy | None-None | 2.12 | 0.917 | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 1.00 | 0.968 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
2.12
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.917
Save %
Ldr 0.968
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
LIGHTNING
100%
ISLANDERS
0%
LIGHTNING
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (New York)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around NYI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYI)
TB By 1 goal
12.1%
TB By 2-3 goals
9.3%
NYI By 1 goal
19.7%
NYI By 2-3 goals
29.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
New York
4
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
2
TAMPA BAY
New York
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Islanders
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Islanders (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o6.0
Loss
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 13, 2025
TB @ NYI
2 - 3
Dec 6, 2025
NYI @ TB
2 - 0
Dec 2, 2025
TB @ NYI
1 - 2
Apr 1, 2025
TB @ NYI
4 - 1
Mar 29, 2025
NYI @ TB
3 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Takeaways (L5)
+20.3% more
New York: 5.0
vs
Tampa Bay: 4.2
Shots on Goal (L5)
+16.1% more
New York: 32.4
vs
Tampa Bay: 27.9
Hits (L5)
+13.6% more
New York: 18.7
vs
Tampa Bay: 16.5
Faceoff % (L5)
+8.2%
New York: 53.9%
vs
Tampa Bay: 45.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.0
1
NYI Score
4.0
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.5 / 14.1
19.0 / 7.0
Faceoff %
53.9 / 45.7
47.6 / 52.4
Hits
18.7 / 16.5
19.0 / 14.0
Power Play %
1657.0 / 2689.0
0.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
32.4 / 27.9
24.0 / 31.0
Takeaways
5.0 / 4.2
3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
TB
NYI
TB
ML
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
67%
2-1
ATS
33%
1-2
67%
2-1
33%
1-2
33%
1-2
TTL
100%
2-0-1
67%
2-1
100%
2-0-1
100%
3-0
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