Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami OH @ W Michigan M-OH @ WMU

MIAMI (OH)

MIAMI OHM-OH

7-5  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 12:00 PM ET
Ford Field
View Odds Details →

WESTERN MICHIGAN

W MICHIGANWMU

8-4  |  Home

23
Key Game
Lynel Billups-Williams
KEY GAME

Lynel Billups-Williams

#10 | Wide Receiver
@
Palmer Domschke
KEY GAME

Palmer Domschke

#20 | Place kicker
Player
Lynel Billups-Williams None-None
Palmer Domschke None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI OH
100%
📊
W MICHIGAN
0%
MIAMI OH --
W MICHIGAN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
17.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Western Michigan)
Miami OHM-OH (-3.5) 0 W MichiganWMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami OH Cover

21.6%

W Michigan Cover

78.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around WMU -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WMU)

M-OH By 1-6 points

10.0%

M-OH By 7-13 points

6.6%

WMU By 1-6 points

14.7%

WMU By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3
MIAMI (OH)
14
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Simulated Score
20
MIAMI (OH)
27
WESTERN MICHIGAN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI W Michigan Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim W Michigan Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI W Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Sim W Michigan (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 17.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 M-OH @ WMU 13 - 23
Oct 25, 2025 WMU @ M-OH 17 - 26
Oct 14, 2023 M-OH @ WMU 34 - 21
Oct 22, 2022 WMU @ M-OH 16 - 10
Oct 12, 2019 M-OH @ WMU 16 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.2% more
Western Michigan: 255.9 vs Miami (OH): 172.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Western Michigan: 0.4 vs Miami (OH): 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
M-OH Score 3.0 13
WMU Score 14.0 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 19.0 18.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 255.9 / 172.6 286.0 / 73.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.27 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.59 / 0.41
Total Yards 365.5 / 371.6 397.0 / 272.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
28%MONEY72%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
44%MONEY56%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
40%MONEY60%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
M-OH
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
WMU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
M-OH Advantage
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: -2.4 ATS +/-: -4.9
WMU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
M-OH
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +8.1
WMU
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WMU
M-OH
WMU
M-OH
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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