Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duke @ Virginia DUKE @ UVA

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

7-5  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sat, Dec 6 • 8:00 PM ET
Bank of America Stadium
View Odds Details →

VIRGINIA

VIRGINIAUVA

10-2  |  Home

20
Key Game
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
@
Will Bettridge
KEY GAME

Will Bettridge

#41 | Place kicker
Player
Kade Reynoldson None-None
Will Bettridge None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUKE
100%
📊
VIRGINIA
0%
DUKE --
VIRGINIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.0
VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.0 points (Virginia)
DukeDUKE (-3.5) 0 VirginiaUVA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duke Cover

28.4%

Virginia Cover

71.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UVA -8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVA)

DUKE By 1-6 points

12.2%

DUKE By 7-13 points

8.8%

UVA By 1-6 points

16.1%

UVA By 7-13 points

19.5%

AI Model Projected Score
20
DUKE
28
VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
20
DUKE
27
VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Virginia Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Virginia Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Virginia (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -8.0
B
Sim Virginia (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 6, 2025 DUKE @ UVA 27 - 20
Nov 15, 2025 UVA @ DUKE 34 - 17
Nov 18, 2023 DUKE @ UVA 27 - 30
Oct 1, 2022 UVA @ DUKE 17 - 38
Oct 16, 2021 DUKE @ UVA 0 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +51.1% more
Virginia: 183.5 vs Duke: 121.5
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
Virginia: 1.0 vs Duke: 0.5
Total Yards (L5) +10.5% more
Virginia: 406.6 vs Duke: 368.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Virginia: 0.5 vs Duke: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 20.0 27
UVA Score 28.0 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.1 / 22.1 25.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 183.5 / 121.5 128.0 / 137.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.47 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 406.6 / 368.0 344.0 / 333.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.5 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
15%TICKETS85%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
UVA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 15.8 ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
UVA
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVA
DUKE
UVA
DUKE
ML
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
TTL
60% 3-2
25% 1-3
0% 0-5
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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