Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Troy @ James Madison TROY @ JMU

TROY

TROYTROY

8-4  |  Road

14
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 7:00 PM ET
Bridgeforth Stadium
View Odds Details →

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

11-1  |  Home

31
Key Game
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
@
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
Player
Evan Crenshaw None-None
Patrick Rea None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TROY
100%
📊
JAMES MADISON
0%
TROY --
JAMES MADISON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
JAMES MADISON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (James Madison)
TroyTROY (-3.5) 0 James MadisonJMU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Troy Cover

0.6%

James Madison Cover

99.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JMU -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JMU)

TROY By 1-6 points

0.4%

TROY By 7-13 points

0.1%

JMU By 1-6 points

1.4%

JMU By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
7
TROY
42
JAMES MADISON
Simulated Score
24
TROY
27
JAMES MADISON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim James Madison Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI James Madison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
B
Sim James Madison (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 5, 2025 TROY @ JMU 14 - 31
Sep 16, 2023 JMU @ TROY 16 - 14
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +173.9% more
James Madison: 245.3 vs Troy: 89.6
Total Yards (L5) +37.6% more
James Madison: 476.1 vs Troy: 346.0
First Downs (L5) +25.4% more
James Madison: 22.4 vs Troy: 17.9
Turnovers (L5) +15.6% more
Troy: 1.2 vs James Madison: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TROY Score 7.0 14
JMU Score 42.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.4 / 17.9 19.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 245.3 / 89.6 318.0 / -26.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.14 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 476.1 / 346.0 411.0 / 177.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
32%MONEY68%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
20%MONEY80%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
88%TICKETS12%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TROY
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
⚖️ Over/Under
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JMU
TROY
JMU
TROY
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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