Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Kennesaw St @ Jax State KENN @ JXST

KENNESAW STATE

KENNESAW STKENN

9-3  |  Road

19
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 7:00 PM ET
AmFirst Stadium
View Odds Details →

JACKSONVILLE STATE

JAX STATEJXST

8-4  |  Home

15
Key Game
Donovan Westmoreland
KEY GAME

Donovan Westmoreland

#1 | Linebacker
@
Conor Donaghy
KEY GAME

Conor Donaghy

#87 | Punter
Player
Donovan Westmoreland None-None
Conor Donaghy None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
KENNESAW ST
100%
📊
JAX STATE
0%
KENNESAW ST --
JAX STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
83.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Jacksonville State)
Kennesaw StKENN (-3.5) 0 Jax StateJXST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Kennesaw St Cover

47.2%

Jax State Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around JXST -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (JXST)

KENN By 1-6 points

16.1%

KENN By 7-13 points

14.6%

JXST By 1-6 points

16.7%

JXST By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
41
KENNESAW STATE
42
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Simulated Score
24
KENNESAW STATE
28
JACKSONVILLE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Jax State Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Jax State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.0
B
Sim Jax State (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 83.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 7, 2026 JXST @ KENN 27 - 26
Dec 5, 2025 KENN @ JXST 19 - 15
Nov 15, 2025 KENN @ JXST 26 - 35
Oct 4, 2024 JXST @ KENN 63 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.1% more
Jacksonville State: 264.7 vs Kennesaw State: 180.0
Turnovers (L5) +8.0% more
Jacksonville State: 1.0 vs Kennesaw State: 0.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Kennesaw State: 0.4 vs Jacksonville State: 0.3
First Downs (L5) +9.9% more
Kennesaw State: 24.7 vs Jacksonville State: 22.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KENN Score 41.0 19
JXST Score 42.0 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 24.7 19.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 264.7 / 180.0 210.0 / 72.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 463.1 / 464.1 306.0 / 318.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KENN
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
JXST Advantage
4-2-0 (66.7%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KENN Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: -0.8 ATS +/-: +2.3
JXST
3-3-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.8 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
KENN
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
JXST
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
JXST
KENN
JXST
KENN
ML
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
100% 6-0
80% 4-1
ATS
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
50% 3-3
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
67% 4-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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