Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UNLV @ Boise St UNLV @ BOIS

UNLV

UNLVUNLV

10-2  |  Road

21
FINAL
Fri, Dec 5 • 8:00 PM ET
Albertsons Stadium
View Odds Details →

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

8-4  |  Home

38
Key Game
Tre Fulton
KEY GAME

Tre Fulton

#10 | Defensive Back
@
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
Player
Tre Fulton None-None
Oscar Doyle None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UNLV
0%
📊
BOISE ST
100%
UNLV --
BOISE ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
UNLV
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (UNLV)
UNLVUNLV (-3.5) 0 Boise StBOIS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UNLV Cover

97.7%

Boise St Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNLV -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNLV)

UNLV By 1-6 points

3.8%

UNLV By 7-13 points

8.8%

BOIS By 1-6 points

1.4%

BOIS By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
38
UNLV
10
BOISE STATE
Simulated Score
31
UNLV
24
BOISE STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UNLV Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim UNLV Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI UNLV (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -28.0
B
Sim UNLV (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 5, 2025 UNLV @ BOIS 21 - 38
Oct 18, 2025 UNLV @ BOIS 31 - 56
Dec 6, 2024 UNLV @ BOIS 7 - 21
Oct 25, 2024 BOIS @ UNLV 29 - 24
Dec 2, 2023 BOIS @ UNLV 44 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +22.2% more
UNLV: 1.4 vs Boise State: 1.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
UNLV: 0.6 vs Boise State: 0.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +10.6% more
UNLV: 211.4 vs Boise State: 188.9
Total Yards (L5) +10.4% more
UNLV: 480.0 vs Boise State: 430.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNLV Score 38.0 21
BOIS Score 10.0 38
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 25.5 23.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 188.9 / 211.4 171.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.6 0.62 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 430.1 / 480.0 460.0 / 409.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
47%MONEY53%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
42%TICKETS58%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
BOIS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNLV
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 1.4 ATS +/-: -3.4
BOIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNLV
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.3
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOIS
UNLV
BOIS
UNLV
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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