PHOENIX
SUNSPHX
12-9 | Road
125
LOS ANGELES
LAKERSLAL
15-4 | Home
108
AI Model Win Probability
SUNS
0%
LAKERS
100%
SUNS
--
LAKERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
255.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
PHOENIX
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Phoenix)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around PHX -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHX)
PHX By 1-7 points
27.2%
PHX By 8-14 points
23.0%
LAL By 1-7 points
18.6%
LAL By 8-14 points
8.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Phoenix
130
PHOENIX
Los Angeles
125
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
Phoenix
115
PHOENIX
Los Angeles
118
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Suns
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Lakers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Suns (-5)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim
Lakers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o233.0
Push
Proj Total: 255.0
D
Sim
u233.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 10, 2026
PHX @ LAL
73 - 101
Feb 26, 2026
LAL @ PHX
110 - 113
Dec 23, 2025
LAL @ PHX
108 - 132
Dec 14, 2025
LAL @ PHX
116 - 114
Dec 1, 2025
PHX @ LAL
125 - 108
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+39.9% more
Phoenix: 10.5
vs
Los Angeles: 6.3
Turnovers (L5)
+12.0% more
Phoenix: 14.4
vs
Los Angeles: 12.6
Blocks (L5)
+62.5% more
Los Angeles: 5.7
vs
Phoenix: 3.5
Assists (L5)
+20.4% more
Los Angeles: 26.4
vs
Phoenix: 21.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHX Score
130.0
125
LAL Score
125.0
108
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
39.7 / 34.5
39.0 / 44.0
Assists
26.4 / 21.9
18.0 / 35.0
Blocks
5.7 / 3.5
0.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
52.3 / 45.1
51.0 / 57.0
Free Throw %
82.9 / 76.5
87.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
41.2 / 41.5
39.0 / 33.0
Steals
6.3 / 10.5
1.0 / 16.0
Turnovers
12.6 / 14.4
22.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHX
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
LAL
Advantage
57-35-0
(62.0%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHX
Advantage
50-38-0
(56.8%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-: +1.4
LAL
51-41-0
(55.4%)
Margin: 1.0
ATS +/-: -0.1
⚖️ Over/Under
PHX
40-48-0
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: -1.6
LAL
46-46-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAL
PHX
LAL
PHX
ML
61%
68-43
57%
60-45
54%
49-42
51%
45-43
ATS
61%
67-43-1
58%
59-43-3
54%
49-42
51%
45-43
TTL
61%
66-43-2
59%
61-42-2
100%
91-0
100%
88-0
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