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IOWA

HAWKEYESIOWA

7-1  |  Road

52
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 7:00 PM ET
Breslin Center
View Odds Details →

MICHIGAN STATE

SPARTANSMSU

8-0  |  Home

71
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKEYES
0%
📊
SPARTANS
100%
HAWKEYES --
SPARTANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
IOWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Iowa)
HawkeyesIOWA (-3.5) 0 SpartansMSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawkeyes Cover

99.9%

Spartans Cover

0.1%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around IOWA -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (IOWA)

IOWA By 1-7 points

0.6%

IOWA By 8-14 points

3.3%

MSU By 1-7 points

0.1%

MSU By 8-14 points

0.0%

AI Model Projected Score
94
IOWA
62
MICHIGAN STATE
Simulated Score
73
IOWA
78
MICHIGAN STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Hawkeyes Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Spartans Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Hawkeyes (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -32.0
D
Sim Spartans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 151.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 IOWA @ MSU 52 - 71
Mar 6, 2025 MSU @ IOWA 91 - 84
Feb 20, 2024 IOWA @ MSU 78 - 71
Feb 25, 2023 MSU @ IOWA 106 - 112
Jan 26, 2023 IOWA @ MSU 61 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +202.9% more
Michigan State: 5.2 vs Iowa: 1.7
Assists (L5) +27.0% more
Michigan State: 18.9 vs Iowa: 14.9
Rebounding (L5) +24.3% more
Michigan State: 39.7 vs Iowa: 31.9
Turnovers (L5) +12.5% more
Michigan State: 10.9 vs Iowa: 9.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
IOWA Score 94.0 52
MSU Score 62.0 71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.9 / 36.0 25.0 / 30.0
Assists 18.9 / 14.9 13.0 / 11.0
Blocks 5.2 / 1.7 3.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 49.1 / 48.2 50.0 / 38.0
Free Throw % 74.1 / 72.9 88.0 / 65.0
Rebounding 39.7 / 31.9 37.0 / 18.0
Steals 6.5 / 6.7 4.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 10.9 / 9.7 14.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
6%MONEY94%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
29%MONEY71%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
61%MONEY39%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
IOWA
24-13-0 (64.9%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
MSU Advantage
27-8-0 (77.1%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
IOWA Advantage
21-16-0 (56.8%)
Margin: 8.3 ATS +/-: +1.1
MSU
17-16-2 (51.5%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +1.5
⚖️ Over/Under
IOWA
20-17-0
O: 54.1% / U: 46.0% Total +/-: +0.6
MSU
16-19-0
O: 45.7% / U: 54.3% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MSU
IOWA
MSU
IOWA
ML
71% 25-10
59% 22-15
61% 20-13
78% 28-8
ATS
71% 25-10
76% 28-9
61% 20-13
78% 28-8
TTL
49% 17-18
57% 21-16
100% 33-0
100% 36-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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