Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tigers @ Fighting Irish MIZ @ ND

MISSOURI

TIGERSMIZ

8-1  |  Road

71
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 9:00 PM ET
Purcell Pavilion
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

FIGHTING IRISHND

6-3  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
100%
📊
FIGHTING IRISH
0%
TIGERS --
FIGHTING IRISH --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
152.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Notre Dame)
TigersMIZ (-3.5) 0 Fighting IrishND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

0.3%

Fighting Irish Cover

99.7%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around ND -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

MIZ By 1-7 points

0.2%

MIZ By 8-14 points

0.0%

ND By 1-7 points

1.7%

ND By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
62
MISSOURI
90
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
68
MISSOURI
72
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Fighting Irish Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Fighting Irish (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
D
Sim Fighting Irish (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 152.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 MIZ @ ND 71 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +55.1% more
Missouri: 3.9 vs Notre Dame: 1.8
Steals (L5) +49.8% more
Missouri: 9.0 vs Notre Dame: 4.5
Assists (L5) +40.9% more
Missouri: 16.8 vs Notre Dame: 9.9
Turnovers (L5) +22.2% more
Missouri: 13.7 vs Notre Dame: 10.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIZ Score 62.0 71
ND Score 90.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 36.4 33.0 / 29.0
Assists 9.9 / 16.8 16.0 / 12.0
Blocks 1.8 / 3.9 2.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 42.1 / 53.0 46.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 73.7 / 77.5 83.0 / 68.0
Rebounding 35.4 / 43.2 33.0 / 31.0
Steals 4.5 / 9.0 4.0 / 10.0
Turnovers 10.6 / 13.7 13.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
43%MONEY57%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
51%MONEY49%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
64%MONEY36%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIZ Advantage
20-13-0 (60.6%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
ND
13-18-0 (41.9%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIZ
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: -2.3
ND Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
MIZ
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.3
ND
22-9-0
O: 71.0% / U: 29.0% Total +/-: +5.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
MIZ
ND
MIZ
ML
65% 20-11
61% 20-13
77% 24-7
69% 22-10
ATS
55% 17-14
70% 23-10
77% 24-7
69% 22-10
TTL
68% 21-10
79% 26-7
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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