Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Tar Heels @ Wildcats UNC @ UK

NORTH CAROLINA

TAR HEELSUNC

7-1  |  Road

67
FINAL
Tue, Dec 2 • 9:30 PM ET
Rupp Arena
View Odds Details →

KENTUCKY

WILDCATSUK

5-3  |  Home

64
AI Model Win Probability
TAR HEELS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
TAR HEELS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
144.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (North Carolina)
Tar HeelsUNC (-3.5) 0 WildcatsUK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tar Heels Cover

88.5%

Wildcats Cover

11.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UNC -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

UNC By 1-7 points

20.1%

UNC By 8-14 points

27.2%

UK By 1-7 points

8.0%

UK By 8-14 points

2.2%

AI Model Projected Score
78
NORTH CAROLINA
66
KENTUCKY
Simulated Score
78
NORTH CAROLINA
81
KENTUCKY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tar Heels (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 144.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 159.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 2, 2025 UNC @ UK 67 - 64
Dec 16, 2023 UNC @ UK 83 - 87
Dec 18, 2021 UNC @ UK 69 - 98
Dec 19, 2020 UNC @ UK 75 - 63
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +63.6% more
Kentucky: 8.4 vs North Carolina: 5.1
Assists (L5) +48.2% more
Kentucky: 21.3 vs North Carolina: 14.4
Blocks (L5) +20.9% more
Kentucky: 4.8 vs North Carolina: 3.9
Rebounding (L5) +16.3% more
Kentucky: 45.8 vs North Carolina: 39.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 78.0 67
UK Score 66.0 64
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 30.6 8.0 / 30.0
Assists 21.3 / 14.4 8.0 / 13.0
Blocks 4.8 / 3.9 7.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 51.4 / 44.7 43.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 72.5 / 73.5 77.0 / 60.0
Rebounding 45.8 / 39.4 30.0 / 41.0
Steals 8.4 / 5.1 8.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 10.1 / 10.6 9.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
56%MONEY44%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
73%MONEY27%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC Advantage
24-9-0 (72.7%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
UK
22-14-0 (61.1%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
19-14-0 (57.6%)
Margin: 8.1 ATS +/-: +0.5
UK
18-18-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.2 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -2.2
UK
18-18-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UK
UNC
UK
UNC
ML
71% 25-10
76% 25-8
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
ATS
83% 29-6
73% 24-9
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
TTL
63% 22-13
55% 18-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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