ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
13-8 | Road
98
DETROIT
PISTONSDET
16-4 | Home
99
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
PISTONS
100%
HAWKS
--
PISTONS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-36.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +36.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -36.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
0.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
1.4%
DET By 1-7 points
0.0%
DET By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
123
ATLANTA
Detroit
87
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Atlanta
105
ATLANTA
Detroit
118
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Pistons
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-9.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -36.0
D
Sim
Pistons (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim
u232.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
ATL @ DET
130 - 129
Dec 12, 2025
ATL @ DET
115 - 142
Dec 1, 2025
ATL @ DET
98 - 99
Nov 18, 2025
DET @ ATL
120 - 112
Feb 23, 2025
DET @ ATL
148 - 143
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+24.7% more
Atlanta: 34.1
vs
Detroit: 25.7
Turnovers (L5)
+10.0% more
Detroit: 18.9
vs
Atlanta: 17.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+2.8%
Detroit: 38.7%
vs
Atlanta: 36.0%
Field Goal % (L5)
+2.7%
Detroit: 51.3%
vs
Atlanta: 48.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
123.0
98
DET Score
87.0
99
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
38.7 / 36.0
19.0 / 35.0
Assists
25.7 / 34.1
18.0 / 27.0
Blocks
5.3 / 5.7
9.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
51.3 / 48.6
44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
75.7 / 73.9
75.0 / 73.0
Rebounding
45.7 / 45.7
60.0 / 34.0
Steals
8.9 / 8.6
11.0 / 15.0
Turnovers
18.9 / 17.2
23.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
Advantage
67-29-0
(69.8%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
DET
50-46-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 7.2
ATS +/-: +2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
DET
45-50-1
O: 47.4% / U: 52.6%
Total +/-: -0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ATL
DET
ATL
ML
55%
64-53
50%
52-52
49%
47-49
55%
48-40
ATS
53%
60-54-3
53%
55-48-1
49%
47-49
55%
48-40
TTL
60%
70-46-1
53%
55-48-1
100%
96-0
100%
88-0
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