LA
CLIPPERSLAC
5-15 | Road
123
MIAMI
HEATMIA
13-7 | Home
140
AI Model Win Probability
CLIPPERS
100%
HEAT
0%
CLIPPERS
--
HEAT
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
232.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around MIA -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
LAC By 1-7 points
8.0%
LAC By 8-14 points
2.2%
MIA By 1-7 points
20.1%
MIA By 8-14 points
27.2%
AI Model Projected Score
LA
110
LA
Miami
122
MIAMI
Simulated Score
LA
109
LA
Miami
113
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Heat
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Heat
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Heat (-6)
Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim
Heat (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u236.5
Loss
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Sim
u236.5
Win
Proj Total: 222.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 1, 2025
LAC @ MIA
123 - 140
Nov 3, 2025
MIA @ LAC
120 - 119
Mar 12, 2025
LAC @ MIA
119 - 104
Jan 13, 2025
MIA @ LAC
98 - 109
Feb 4, 2024
LAC @ MIA
103 - 95
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+27.4% more
Miami: 9.7
vs
LA: 7.6
Assists (L5)
+24.5% more
Miami: 28.8
vs
LA: 23.1
Rebounding (L5)
+14.2% more
Miami: 46.3
vs
LA: 40.5
Blocks (L5)
+8.3% more
Miami: 4.8
vs
LA: 4.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
LAC Score
110.0
123
MIA Score
122.0
140
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.9 / 32.6
52.0 / 31.0
Assists
28.8 / 23.1
34.0 / 23.0
Blocks
4.8 / 4.5
10.0 / 3.0
Field Goal %
47.4 / 46.2
53.0 / 45.0
Free Throw %
81.0 / 89.6
83.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
46.3 / 40.5
50.0 / 46.0
Steals
9.7 / 7.6
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
15.0 / 15.6
12.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LAC
42-41-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: -0.4
MIA
Advantage
43-40-0
(51.8%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LAC
42-41-0
(50.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: -0.4
MIA
Advantage
47-36-0
(56.6%)
Margin: 2.3
ATS +/-: +1.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LAC
41-42-0
O: 49.4% / U: 50.6%
Total +/-: +2.2
MIA
47-36-0
O: 56.6% / U: 43.4%
Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
LAC
MIA
LAC
ML
48%
46-50
60%
59-40
59%
48-34
55%
45-37
ATS
51%
49-47
66%
65-33-1
59%
48-34
55%
45-37
TTL
59%
57-39
59%
58-40-1
100%
82-0
100%
82-0
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