DALLAS
MAVERICKSDAL
6-15 | Road
131
DENVER
NUGGETSDEN
14-5 | Home
121
AI Model Win Probability
MAVERICKS
0%
NUGGETS
100%
MAVERICKS
--
NUGGETS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
228.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+8.0
DENVER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around DEN +8.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEN)
DAL By 1-7 points
25.3%
DAL By 8-14 points
26.2%
DEN By 1-7 points
13.7%
DEN By 8-14 points
4.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Dallas
118
DALLAS
Denver
110
DENVER
Simulated Score
Dallas
108
DALLAS
Denver
115
DENVER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Mavericks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nuggets
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nuggets (+11)
Win
Proj Spread: +8.0
D
Sim
Nuggets (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.5
Loss
Proj Total: 228.0
D
Sim
u235.5
Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 25, 2026
DAL @ DEN
135 - 142
Jan 14, 2026
DEN @ DAL
118 - 109
Dec 23, 2025
DEN @ DAL
130 - 131
Dec 1, 2025
DAL @ DEN
131 - 121
Jan 14, 2025
DEN @ DAL
118 - 99
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5)
+58.4% more
Dallas: 10.0
vs
Denver: 4.1
Assists (L5)
+31.5% more
Denver: 31.0
vs
Dallas: 23.6
Turnovers (L5)
+24.6% more
Denver: 15.6
vs
Dallas: 12.5
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+13.6%
Denver: 47.3%
vs
Dallas: 33.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DAL Score
118.0
131
DEN Score
110.0
121
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
47.3 / 33.7
32.0 / 52.0
Assists
31.0 / 23.6
37.0 / 35.0
Blocks
4.4 / 4.6
5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
53.7 / 43.8
47.0 / 56.0
Free Throw %
85.1 / 82.6
83.0 / 64.0
Rebounding
42.1 / 41.8
47.0 / 43.0
Steals
4.1 / 10.0
5.0 / 4.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 12.5
8.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DAL
26-56-0
(31.7%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
56-32-0
(63.6%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DAL
36-46-0
(43.9%)
Margin: -5.5
ATS +/-: -0.8
DEN
Advantage
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 4.5
ATS +/-: +0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
DAL
37-45-0
O: 45.1% / U: 54.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
DEN
53-35-0
O: 60.2% / U: 39.8%
Total +/-: +3.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEN
DAL
DEN
DAL
ML
54%
57-48
62%
63-39
55%
47-39
54%
44-37
ATS
63%
65-38-2
67%
68-34
55%
47-39
54%
44-37
TTL
54%
56-48-1
59%
60-41-1
100%
86-0
100%
81-0
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