HOUSTON
ROCKETSHOU
13-4 | Road
125
UTAH
JAZZUTAH
6-13 | Home
133
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
JAZZ
0%
ROCKETS
--
JAZZ
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Utah)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)
HOU By 1-7 points
9.3%
HOU By 8-14 points
2.7%
UTAH By 1-7 points
21.6%
UTAH By 8-14 points
27.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Houston
100
HOUSTON
Utah
111
UTAH
Simulated Score
Houston
114
HOUSTON
Utah
119
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Jazz
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Jazz
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Jazz (+11.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim
Jazz (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u235.0
Loss
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim
u235.0
Win
Proj Total: 233.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 3, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
106 - 140
Feb 23, 2026
UTAH @ HOU
105 - 125
Dec 1, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
125 - 133
Nov 30, 2025
HOU @ UTAH
129 - 101
Oct 8, 2025
UTAH @ HOU
127 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+21.1% more
Utah: 31.4
vs
Houston: 25.9
Turnovers (L5)
+13.1% more
Utah: 16.0
vs
Houston: 14.1
Free Throw % (L5)
+5.8%
Utah: 81.7%
vs
Houston: 75.9%
Steals (L5)
+25.7% more
Houston: 10.7
vs
Utah: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
HOU Score
100.0
125
UTAH Score
111.0
133
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
31.5 / 35.9
40.0 / 29.0
Assists
31.4 / 25.9
33.0 / 27.0
Blocks
4.2 / 4.7
4.0 / 8.0
Field Goal %
46.0 / 47.2
50.0 / 44.0
Free Throw %
81.7 / 75.9
76.0 / 80.0
Rebounding
41.5 / 48.8
50.0 / 46.0
Steals
7.9 / 10.7
8.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
16.0 / 14.1
13.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
Advantage
54-34-0
(61.4%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
UTAH
22-60-0
(26.8%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0
(43.2%)
Margin: 4.7
ATS +/-: -1.5
UTAH
Advantage
41-41-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -8.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9%
Total +/-: -0.3
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2%
Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
HOU
UTAH
HOU
ML
60%
96-63
61%
69-44
48%
40-43
59%
51-35
ATS
68%
108-51
62%
70-43
48%
40-43
59%
51-35
TTL
75%
119-39-1
51%
58-55
100%
83-0
100%
86-0
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