WEST GEORGIA
WOLVESWGA
5-3 | Road
93
TROY
TROJANSTROY
5-5 | Home
89
AI Model Win Probability
WOLVES
100%
TROJANS
0%
WOLVES
--
TROJANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
157.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-29.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +29.0 points (Troy)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around TROY -29.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)
WGA By 1-7 points
0.1%
WGA By 8-14 points
0.0%
TROY By 1-7 points
1.4%
TROY By 8-14 points
5.8%
AI Model Projected Score
West Georgia
64
WEST GEORGIA
Troy
93
TROY
Simulated Score
West Georgia
62
WEST GEORGIA
Troy
78
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Trojans
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Trojans
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Trojans (-17.5)
Loss
Proj Spread: -29.0
D
Sim
Trojans (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -16.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o148.5
Win
Proj Total: 157.0
D
Sim
u148.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Dec 1, 2025
WGA @ TROY
93 - 89
Nov 19, 2024
TROY @ WGA
84 - 65
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+30.8% more
Troy: 15.6
vs
West Georgia: 11.9
Steals (L5)
+26.8% more
Troy: 9.1
vs
West Georgia: 7.2
Rebounding (L5)
+14.4% more
Troy: 41.3
vs
West Georgia: 36.1
Assists (L5)
+13.8% more
Troy: 13.8
vs
West Georgia: 12.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WGA Score
64.0
93
TROY Score
93.0
89
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
26.4 / 36.2
32.0 / 35.0
Assists
13.8 / 12.1
15.0 / 15.0
Blocks
2.9 / 3.6
4.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
43.5 / 42.9
44.0 / 43.0
Free Throw %
71.9 / 68.0
62.0 / 50.0
Rebounding
41.3 / 36.1
52.0 / 48.0
Steals
9.1 / 7.2
2.0 / 9.0
Turnovers
15.6 / 11.9
17.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WGA
15-17-0
(46.9%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
TROY
Advantage
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WGA
Advantage
21-9-0
(70.0%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: +1.1
TROY
17-15-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 6.1
ATS +/-: -1.0
⚖️ Over/Under
WGA
16-14-0
O: 53.3% / U: 46.7%
Total +/-: +2.2
TROY
14-16-2
O: 46.7% / U: 53.3%
Total +/-: +2.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
WGA
TROY
WGA
ML
59%
20-14
58%
18-13
61%
20-13
61%
19-12
ATS
65%
22-12
71%
22-9
61%
20-13
61%
19-12
TTL
56%
19-15
55%
17-14
100%
33-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
