Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Texans @ Bearcats TAR @ CIN

TARLETON STATE

TEXANSTAR

5-4  |  Road

58
FINAL
Mon, Dec 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Fifth Third Arena
View Odds Details →

CINCINNATI

BEARCATSCIN

6-2  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
100%
📊
BEARCATS
0%
TEXANS --
BEARCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
111.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
CINCINNATI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Cincinnati)
TexansTAR (-3.5) 0 BearcatsCIN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

13.6%

Bearcats Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CIN -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CIN)

TAR By 1-7 points

9.3%

TAR By 8-14 points

2.7%

CIN By 1-7 points

21.6%

CIN By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
50
TARLETON STATE
61
CINCINNATI
Simulated Score
65
TARLETON STATE
78
CINCINNATI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bearcats Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Bearcats Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bearcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Bearcats (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 111.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 1, 2025 TAR @ CIN 58 - 76
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +39.3% more
Cincinnati: 17.1 vs Tarleton State: 12.3
Blocks (L5) +17.2% more
Cincinnati: 5.0 vs Tarleton State: 4.2
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.2%
Cincinnati: 29.8% vs Tarleton State: 25.6%
Steals (L5) +26.6% more
Tarleton State: 11.1 vs Cincinnati: 8.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TAR Score 50.0 58
CIN Score 61.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 29.8 / 25.6 42.0 / 40.0
Assists 17.1 / 12.3 16.0 / 10.0
Blocks 5.0 / 4.2 7.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 40.4 / 46.3 46.0 / 41.0
Free Throw % 69.2 / 80.0 60.0 / 57.0
Rebounding 36.1 / 36.0 38.0 / 23.0
Steals 8.1 / 11.1 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.3 / 16.0 21.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
16%MONEY84%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TAR
14-18-0 (43.8%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
CIN Advantage
18-15-0 (54.6%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TAR Advantage
14-14-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.1 ATS +/-: 0.0
CIN
14-19-0 (42.4%)
Margin: 5.5 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TAR
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +4.8
CIN
12-21-0
O: 36.4% / U: 63.6% Total +/-: -4.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CIN
TAR
CIN
TAR
ML
67% 22-11
59% 19-13
74% 23-8
66% 21-11
ATS
64% 21-12
69% 22-10
74% 23-8
66% 21-11
TTL
67% 22-11
50% 16-16
100% 31-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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