Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Red Flash @ Musketeers SFPA @ XAV

SAINT FRANCIS

RED FLASHSFPA

1-7  |  Road

74
FINAL
Mon, Dec 1 • 7:00 PM ET
Cintas Center
View Odds Details →

XAVIER

MUSKETEERSXAV

6-3  |  Home

96
AI Model Win Probability
RED FLASH
100%
📊
MUSKETEERS
0%
RED FLASH --
MUSKETEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
127.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.0
XAVIER
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.0 points (Xavier)
Red FlashSFPA (-3.5) 0 MusketeersXAV (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Red Flash Cover

30.9%

Musketeers Cover

69.1%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around XAV -5.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (XAV)

SFPA By 1-7 points

18.6%

SFPA By 8-14 points

8.0%

XAV By 1-7 points

27.2%

XAV By 8-14 points

23.0%

AI Model Projected Score
61
SAINT FRANCIS
66
XAVIER
Simulated Score
55
SAINT FRANCIS
78
XAVIER
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Musketeers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Musketeers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Musketeers (+27.5) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Sim Musketeers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -23.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u151.5 Loss
Proj Total: 127.0
D
Sim u151.5 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 1, 2025 SFPA @ XAV 74 - 96
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +52.4% more
Xavier: 20.0 vs Saint Francis: 13.1
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +14.8%
Xavier: 44.4% vs Saint Francis: 29.6%
Turnovers (L5) +55.0% more
Saint Francis: 18.1 vs Xavier: 8.2
Steals (L5) +15.5% more
Saint Francis: 7.9 vs Xavier: 6.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SFPA Score 61.0 74
XAV Score 66.0 96
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 44.4 / 29.6 31.0 / 36.0
Assists 20.0 / 13.1 23.0 / 21.0
Blocks 4.4 / 4.2 4.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.5 / 43.5 49.0 / 44.0
Free Throw % 71.3 / 72.3 67.0 / 80.0
Rebounding 37.6 / 39.6 43.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.7 / 7.9 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 8.2 / 18.1 8.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
6%TICKETS94%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SFPA
7-24-0 (22.6%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
XAV Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SFPA
13-15-1 (46.4%)
Margin: -9.5 ATS +/-: -1.7
XAV Advantage
16-17-0 (48.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -1.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SFPA
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3% Total +/-: +5.8
XAV
25-8-0
O: 75.8% / U: 24.2% Total +/-: +6.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
XAV
SFPA
XAV
SFPA
ML
58% 19-14
68% 21-10
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
ATS
73% 24-9
68% 21-10
72% 23-9
67% 20-10
TTL
39% 13-20
58% 18-13
100% 32-0
100% 30-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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