MCNEESE
COWBOYSMCN
6-1 | Road
67
INCARNATE WORD
CARDINALSUIW
4-3 | Home
71
AI Model Win Probability
COWBOYS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
COWBOYS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
140.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+6.0
INCARNATE WORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UIW +6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UIW)
MCN By 1-7 points
26.8%
MCN By 8-14 points
24.3%
UIW By 1-7 points
16.9%
UIW By 8-14 points
6.8%
AI Model Projected Score
McNeese
73
MCNEESE
Incarnate Word
67
INCARNATE WORD
Simulated Score
McNeese
78
MCNEESE
Incarnate Word
65
INCARNATE WORD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cowboys
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cowboys
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Cardinals (+10.5)
Win
Proj Spread: +6.0
D
Sim
Cowboys (-0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Sim
u145.5
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 7, 2026
UIW @ MCN
64 - 81
Dec 1, 2025
MCN @ UIW
67 - 71
Feb 3, 2025
UIW @ MCN
65 - 67
Feb 24, 2024
UIW @ MCN
71 - 87
Jan 20, 2024
MCN @ UIW
80 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+59.8% more
McNeese: 5.0
vs
Incarnate Word: 2.0
Steals (L5)
+38.5% more
McNeese: 10.2
vs
Incarnate Word: 6.3
Free Throw % (L5)
+1.7%
McNeese: 77.1%
vs
Incarnate Word: 75.4%
Turnovers (L5)
+15.4% more
Incarnate Word: 9.5
vs
McNeese: 8.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MCN Score
73.0
67
UIW Score
67.0
71
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
43.8 / 29.7
38.0 / 20.0
Assists
14.5 / 14.0
13.0 / 5.0
Blocks
2.0 / 5.0
1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal %
51.4 / 45.2
46.0 / 50.0
Free Throw %
75.4 / 77.1
71.0 / 86.0
Rebounding
40.5 / 37.0
29.0 / 23.0
Steals
6.3 / 10.2
7.0 / 8.0
Turnovers
9.5 / 8.2
16.0 / 13.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MCN
Advantage
28-6-0
(82.4%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
UIW
12-19-0
(38.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MCN
Advantage
14-16-1
(46.7%)
Margin: 12.9
ATS +/-: -0.2
UIW
10-18-0
(35.7%)
Margin: 0.5
ATS +/-: -2.0
⚖️ Over/Under
MCN
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8%
Total +/-: -1.6
UIW
14-14-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UIW
MCN
UIW
MCN
ML
47%
14-16
67%
22-11
76%
22-7
88%
28-4
ATS
53%
16-14
76%
25-8
77%
23-7
88%
28-4
TTL
60%
18-12
42%
14-19
100%
30-0
100%
32-0
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