Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Blazers @ Blue Raiders UAB @ MTSU

UAB

BLAZERSUAB

6-2  |  Road

61
FINAL
Mon, Dec 1 • 7:30 PM ET
Murphy Center
View Odds Details →

MIDDLE TENNESSEE

BLUE RAIDERSMTSU

4-3  |  Home

76
AI Model Win Probability
BLAZERS
0%
📊
BLUE RAIDERS
100%
BLAZERS --
BLUE RAIDERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
124.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
UAB
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (UAB)
BlazersUAB (-3.5) 0 Blue RaidersMTSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blazers Cover

96.4%

Blue Raiders Cover

3.6%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around UAB -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UAB)

UAB By 1-7 points

10.7%

UAB By 8-14 points

21.6%

MTSU By 1-7 points

2.7%

MTSU By 8-14 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
71
UAB
53
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Simulated Score
71
UAB
76
MIDDLE TENNESSEE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blazers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Raiders Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blazers (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -18.0
D
Sim Blue Raiders (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 124.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 147.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 1, 2025 UAB @ MTSU 61 - 76
Dec 1, 2024 MTSU @ UAB 76 - 69
Nov 21, 2023 UAB @ MTSU 58 - 57
Feb 11, 2023 MTSU @ UAB 69 - 92
Jan 16, 2023 UAB @ MTSU 73 - 74
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +43.3% more
UAB: 8.4 vs Middle Tennessee: 4.8
Rebounding (L5) +22.9% more
UAB: 45.7 vs Middle Tennessee: 35.2
Free Throw % (L5) +6.0%
UAB: 70.7% vs Middle Tennessee: 64.6%
Blocks (L5) +38.2% more
Middle Tennessee: 3.8 vs UAB: 2.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UAB Score 71.0 61
MTSU Score 53.0 76
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.8 / 27.9 40.0 / 23.0
Assists 14.4 / 14.4 14.0 / 13.0
Blocks 3.8 / 2.8 8.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 45.3 / 44.3 48.0 / 35.0
Free Throw % 64.6 / 70.7 83.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 35.2 / 45.7 36.0 / 39.0
Steals 4.8 / 8.4 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 11.8 / 8.7 10.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
51%MONEY49%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UAB Advantage
20-12-0 (62.5%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
MTSU
17-15-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UAB Advantage
15-16-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 5.4 ATS +/-: -0.5
MTSU
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 2.7 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
UAB
14-17-0
O: 45.2% / U: 54.8% Total +/-: -1.8
MTSU
14-15-0
O: 48.3% / U: 51.7% Total +/-: +1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MTSU
UAB
MTSU
UAB
ML
56% 18-14
59% 19-13
69% 22-10
41% 13-19
ATS
75% 24-8
56% 18-14
69% 22-10
41% 13-19
TTL
53% 17-15
69% 22-10
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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