Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Falcons @ Wildcats BGSU @ KSU

BOWLING GREEN

FALCONSBGSU

5-2  |  Road

82
FINAL
Mon, Dec 1 • 8:00 PM ET
Bramlage Coliseum
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

WILDCATSKSU

5-2  |  Home

66
AI Model Win Probability
FALCONS
0%
📊
WILDCATS
100%
FALCONS --
WILDCATS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
160.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
BOWLING GREEN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (Bowling Green)
FalconsBGSU (-3.5) 0 WildcatsKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Falcons Cover

72.6%

Wildcats Cover

27.4%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around BGSU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BGSU)

BGSU By 1-7 points

26.8%

BGSU By 8-14 points

24.3%

KSU By 1-7 points

16.9%

KSU By 8-14 points

6.8%

AI Model Projected Score
83
BOWLING GREEN
77
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
65
BOWLING GREEN
78
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Falcons Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Wildcats Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Falcons (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Wildcats (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 160.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 1, 2025 BGSU @ KSU 82 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +44.4% more
Bowling Green: 10.4 vs Kansas State: 5.8
Rebounding (L5) +16.4% more
Bowling Green: 38.8 vs Kansas State: 32.5
Free Throw % (L5) +10.7%
Kansas State: 84.4% vs Bowling Green: 73.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.1%
Kansas State: 38.8% vs Bowling Green: 34.7%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 83.0 82
KSU Score 77.0 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 38.8 / 34.7 26.0 / 46.0
Assists 16.4 / 15.5 11.0 / 16.0
Blocks 2.7 / 2.9 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 46.5 / 45.8 39.0 / 45.0
Free Throw % 84.4 / 73.7 55.0 / 74.0
Rebounding 32.5 / 38.8 32.0 / 39.0
Steals 5.8 / 10.4 3.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 14.4 / 14.5 6.0 / 8.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
68%MONEY32%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU Advantage
18-14-0 (56.3%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU Advantage
14-14-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: -0.1
KSU
12-20-0 (37.5%)
Margin: -2.3 ATS +/-: -2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
11-18-0
O: 37.9% / U: 62.1% Total +/-: -1.2
KSU
17-15-0
O: 53.1% / U: 46.9% Total +/-: +0.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
BGSU
KSU
BGSU
ML
59% 19-13
66% 21-11
69% 22-10
56% 18-14
ATS
62% 20-12
72% 23-9
69% 22-10
56% 18-14
TTL
47% 15-17
53% 17-15
100% 32-0
100% 32-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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