Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Wildcats @ Stags UNH @ FAIR

NEW HAMPSHIRE

WILDCATSUNH

2-6  |  Road

68
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 2:00 PM ET
Leo D. Mahoney Arena
View Odds Details →

FAIRFIELD

STAGSFAIR

5-3  |  Home

72
AI Model Win Probability
WILDCATS
100%
📊
STAGS
0%
WILDCATS --
STAGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.0
FAIRFIELD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.0 points (Fairfield)
WildcatsUNH (-3.5) 0 StagsFAIR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wildcats Cover

18.4%

Stags Cover

81.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around FAIR -9.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FAIR)

UNH By 1-7 points

12.2%

UNH By 8-14 points

4.0%

FAIR By 1-7 points

24.3%

FAIR By 8-14 points

26.8%

AI Model Projected Score
60
NEW HAMPSHIRE
69
FAIRFIELD
Simulated Score
68
NEW HAMPSHIRE
72
FAIRFIELD
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Stags Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Stags Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Stags (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Sim Stags (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u147.0 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
D
Sim u147.0 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 UNH @ FAIR 68 - 72
Nov 12, 2024 FAIR @ UNH 62 - 56
Nov 24, 2023 UNH @ FAIR 83 - 80
Nov 11, 2022 FAIR @ UNH 71 - 83
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +32.8% more
Fairfield: 3.2 vs New Hampshire: 2.4
Field Goal % (L5) +6.5%
Fairfield: 43.2% vs New Hampshire: 36.7%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +5.9%
Fairfield: 33.0% vs New Hampshire: 27.1%
Turnovers (L5) +32.2% more
New Hampshire: 13.6 vs Fairfield: 9.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNH Score 60.0 68
FAIR Score 69.0 72
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 27.1 44.0 / 32.0
Assists 10.6 / 10.9 14.0 / 12.0
Blocks 3.2 / 2.4 6.0 / 3.0
Field Goal % 43.2 / 36.7 46.0 / 39.0
Free Throw % 73.5 / 88.3 59.0 / 64.0
Rebounding 35.1 / 35.1 42.0 / 34.0
Steals 6.8 / 7.2 7.0 / 5.0
Turnovers 9.2 / 13.6 11.0 / 7.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNH
9-21-0 (30.0%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -2.3
FAIR Advantage
21-13-0 (61.8%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNH
12-16-0 (42.9%)
Margin: -5.4 ATS +/-: -2.3
FAIR Advantage
15-18-0 (45.5%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: +0.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNH
15-13-0
O: 53.6% / U: 46.4% Total +/-: +0.8
FAIR
14-19-0
O: 42.4% / U: 57.6% Total +/-: -0.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FAIR
UNH
FAIR
UNH
ML
55% 18-15
70% 19-8
61% 20-13
74% 20-7
ATS
48% 16-17
67% 18-9
61% 20-13
74% 20-7
TTL
48% 16-17
59% 16-11
100% 33-0
100% 27-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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