MONMOUTH
HAWKSMONM
3-3 | Road
88
LAFAYETTE
LEOPARDSLAF
1-6 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
LEOPARDS
100%
HAWKS
--
LEOPARDS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
MONMOUTH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Monmouth)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around MONM -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MONM)
MONM By 1-7 points
27.4%
MONM By 8-14 points
21.6%
LAF By 1-7 points
20.1%
LAF By 8-14 points
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Monmouth
58
MONMOUTH
Lafayette
54
LAFAYETTE
Simulated Score
Monmouth
70
MONMOUTH
Lafayette
73
LAFAYETTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Leopards
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Leopards (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 143.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 30, 2025
MONM @ LAF
88 - 74
Nov 25, 2023
MONM @ LAF
63 - 53
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5)
+28.6% more
Monmouth: 4.4
vs
Lafayette: 3.2
Assists (L5)
+24.9% more
Monmouth: 13.3
vs
Lafayette: 10.0
Steals (L5)
+21.5% more
Monmouth: 7.9
vs
Lafayette: 6.2
Field Goal % (L5)
+6.7%
Monmouth: 43.2%
vs
Lafayette: 36.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
MONM Score
58.0
88
LAF Score
54.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
28.4 / 33.9
39.0 / 57.0
Assists
10.0 / 13.3
13.0 / 19.0
Blocks
3.2 / 4.4
0.0 / 4.0
Field Goal %
36.5 / 43.2
43.0 / 59.0
Free Throw %
75.6 / 74.4
77.0 / 71.0
Rebounding
36.6 / 37.4
24.0 / 30.0
Steals
6.2 / 7.9
5.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
11.4 / 10.4
12.0 / 11.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MONM
Advantage
19-15-0
(55.9%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: +1.9
LAF
11-21-0
(34.4%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MONM
Advantage
17-15-1
(53.1%)
Margin: 1.8
ATS +/-: +1.9
LAF
14-17-0
(45.2%)
Margin: -5.0
ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MONM
16-17-0
O: 48.5% / U: 51.5%
Total +/-: +0.1
LAF
18-13-0
O: 58.1% / U: 41.9%
Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAF
MONM
LAF
MONM
ML
53%
17-15
62%
21-13
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
ATS
56%
18-14
62%
21-13
59%
19-13
64%
21-12
TTL
50%
16-16
59%
20-14
100%
32-0
100%
33-0
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