Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lancers @ Eagles LONG @ AMER

LONGWOOD

LANCERSLONG

4-5  |  Road

66
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 4:00 PM ET
Bender Arena
View Odds Details →

AMERICAN UNIVERSITY

EAGLESAMER

5-4  |  Home

92
AI Model Win Probability
LANCERS
0%
📊
EAGLES
100%
LANCERS --
EAGLES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
156.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
+4.0
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
LancersLONG (-3.5) 0 EaglesAMER (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lancers Cover

34.5%

Eagles Cover

65.5%

-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around AMER +4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AMER)

LONG By 1-7 points

27.4%

LONG By 8-14 points

21.6%

AMER By 1-7 points

20.1%

AMER By 8-14 points

9.3%

AI Model Projected Score
80
LONGWOOD
76
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Simulated Score
68
LONGWOOD
72
AMERICAN UNIVERSITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Lancers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Eagles Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Eagles (+4.5) Win
Proj Spread: +4.0
D
Sim Eagles (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o148.5 Win
Proj Total: 156.0
D
Sim u148.5 Win
Proj Total: 140.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 LONG @ AMER 66 - 92
Nov 19, 2021 AMER @ LONG 42 - 82
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +21.4% more
Longwood: 16.9 vs American University: 13.2
Field Goal % (L5) +2.1%
Longwood: 46.3% vs American University: 44.2%
Blocks (L5) +72.8% more
American University: 2.2 vs Longwood: 1.3
Steals (L5) +32.8% more
American University: 10.5 vs Longwood: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LONG Score 80.0 66
AMER Score 76.0 92
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 31.8 / 31.8 38.0 / 12.0
Assists 12.6 / 11.9 13.0 / 5.0
Blocks 2.2 / 1.3 1.0 / 1.0
Field Goal % 44.2 / 46.3 50.0 / 30.0
Free Throw % 71.2 / 72.6 90.0 / 76.0
Rebounding 33.7 / 35.2 35.0 / 33.0
Steals 10.5 / 7.9 4.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 13.2 / 16.9 12.0 / 10.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
11%TICKETS89%
4%MONEY96%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
39%MONEY61%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LONG
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
AMER
16-16-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LONG
13-16-0 (44.8%)
Margin: 3.6 ATS +/-: +0.1
AMER Advantage
16-14-0 (53.3%)
Margin: 3.3 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
LONG
17-12-0
O: 58.6% / U: 41.4% Total +/-: +2.7
AMER
15-15-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.2
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AMER
LONG
AMER
LONG
ML
62% 20-12
65% 20-11
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
ATS
59% 19-13
68% 21-10
62% 20-12
68% 21-10
TTL
59% 19-13
65% 20-11
100% 32-0
100% 31-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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