Home / NBA Projections NBA / Rockets @ Jazz HOU @ UTAH

HOUSTON

ROCKETSHOU

12-4  |  Road

129
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 3:00 PM ET
Delta Center
View Odds Details →

UTAH

JAZZUTAH

6-12  |  Home

101
AI Model Win Probability
ROCKETS
100%
📊
JAZZ
0%
ROCKETS --
JAZZ --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
211.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.0
UTAH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.0 points (Utah)
RocketsHOU (-3.5) 0 JazzUTAH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rockets Cover

13.6%

Jazz Cover

86.4%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UTAH -11.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTAH)

HOU By 1-7 points

9.3%

HOU By 8-14 points

2.7%

UTAH By 1-7 points

21.6%

UTAH By 8-14 points

27.4%

AI Model Projected Score
100
HOUSTON
111
UTAH
Simulated Score
109
HOUSTON
115
UTAH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Jazz Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Jazz Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Jazz (+11.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Sim Jazz (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 211.0
D
Sim u233.0 Win
Proj Total: 224.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 3, 2026 UTAH @ HOU 106 - 140
Feb 23, 2026 UTAH @ HOU 105 - 125
Dec 1, 2025 HOU @ UTAH 125 - 133
Nov 30, 2025 HOU @ UTAH 129 - 101
Oct 8, 2025 UTAH @ HOU 127 - 140
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5) +30.1% more
Utah: 31.0 vs Houston: 23.9
Blocks (L5) +22.7% more
Utah: 4.3 vs Houston: 3.5
Turnovers (L5) +17.3% more
Utah: 15.4 vs Houston: 13.2
Field Goal % (L5) +2.7%
Utah: 47.0% vs Houston: 44.3%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 100.0 129
UTAH Score 111.0 101
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.3 / 36.3 28.0 / 35.0
Assists 31.0 / 23.9 32.0 / 30.0
Blocks 4.3 / 3.5 4.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 44.3 44.0 / 53.0
Free Throw % 76.0 / 74.3 93.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 45.7 / 48.2 33.0 / 50.0
Steals 7.9 / 9.0 8.0 / 14.0
Turnovers 15.4 / 13.2 17.0 / 16.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
48%MONEY52%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU Advantage
54-34-0 (61.4%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
UTAH
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
38-50-0 (43.2%)
Margin: 4.7 ATS +/-: -1.5
UTAH Advantage
41-41-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.4 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
41-46-1
O: 47.1% / U: 52.9% Total +/-: -0.3
UTAH
49-33-0
O: 59.8% / U: 40.2% Total +/-: +5.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTAH
HOU
UTAH
HOU
ML
60% 96-63
61% 69-44
48% 40-43
59% 51-35
ATS
68% 108-51
62% 70-43
48% 40-43
59% 51-35
TTL
75% 119-39-1
51% 58-55
100% 83-0
100% 86-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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