Home / NBA Projections NBA / Celtics @ Cavaliers BOS @ CLE

BOSTON

CELTICSBOS

10-9  |  Road

117
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 6:00 PM ET
Rocket Arena
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

CAVALIERSCLE

12-8  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
CELTICS
100%
📊
CAVALIERS
0%
CELTICS --
CAVALIERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
171.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Cleveland)
CelticsBOS (-3.5) 0 CavaliersCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Celtics Cover

1.8%

Cavaliers Cover

98.2%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around CLE -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

BOS By 1-7 points

1.4%

BOS By 8-14 points

0.2%

CLE By 1-7 points

6.8%

CLE By 8-14 points

16.9%

AI Model Projected Score
75
BOSTON
96
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
108
BOSTON
115
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cavaliers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cavaliers (-7.5) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
D
Sim Cavaliers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u235.0 Win
Proj Total: 171.0
D
Sim u235.0 Win
Proj Total: 223.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 8, 2026 BOS @ CLE 109 - 98
Nov 30, 2025 BOS @ CLE 117 - 115
Oct 29, 2025 CLE @ BOS 105 - 125
Oct 12, 2025 CLE @ BOS 107 - 138
Feb 28, 2025 CLE @ BOS 123 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +31.7% more
Cleveland: 14.7 vs Boston: 11.1
Free Throw % (L5) +10.2%
Cleveland: 83.2% vs Boston: 73.0%
Assists (L5) +8.9% more
Cleveland: 27.3 vs Boston: 25.1
Blocks (L5) +23.5% more
Boston: 6.3 vs Cleveland: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOS Score 75.0 117
CLE Score 96.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.1 / 39.9 38.0 / 35.0
Assists 27.3 / 25.1 28.0 / 19.0
Blocks 4.8 / 6.3 2.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 46.2 / 48.2 46.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 83.2 / 73.0 69.0 / 79.0
Rebounding 43.9 / 43.5 43.0 / 46.0
Steals 8.7 / 8.1 7.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 14.7 / 11.1 14.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
53%MONEY47%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOS Advantage
59-30-0 (66.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
CLE
60-40-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOS Advantage
51-38-0 (57.3%)
Margin: 7.3 ATS +/-: +2.2
CLE
40-60-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 2.8 ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BOS
32-57-0
O: 36.0% / U: 64.0% Total +/-: -3.2
CLE
52-48-0
O: 52.0% / U: 48.0% Total +/-: +0.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
BOS
CLE
BOS
ML
60% 69-46
57% 61-46
56% 55-44
53% 47-41
ATS
67% 75-37-3
59% 61-43-3
56% 55-44
53% 47-41
TTL
59% 68-47
56% 60-47
100% 99-0
100% 88-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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