Home / NBA Projections NBA / Raptors @ Knicks TOR @ NY

TORONTO

RAPTORSTOR

14-6  |  Road

94
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 6:00 PM ET
Madison Square Garden
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

KNICKSNY

12-6  |  Home

116
AI Model Win Probability
RAPTORS
100%
📊
KNICKS
0%
RAPTORS --
KNICKS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
212.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-12.0
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +12.0 points (New York)
RaptorsTOR (-3.5) 0 KnicksNY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Raptors Cover

11.5%

Knicks Cover

88.5%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around NY -12.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NY)

TOR By 1-7 points

8.0%

TOR By 8-14 points

2.2%

NY By 1-7 points

20.1%

NY By 8-14 points

27.2%

AI Model Projected Score
100
TORONTO
112
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
109
TORONTO
118
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Knicks Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Knicks Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Knicks (-8.5) Win
Proj Spread: -12.0
D
Sim Knicks (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 212.0
D
Sim u229.5 Win
Proj Total: 227.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 10, 2026 TOR @ NY 95 - 112
Mar 3, 2026 NY @ TOR 111 - 95
Jan 28, 2026 NY @ TOR 119 - 92
Dec 9, 2025 NY @ TOR 117 - 101
Nov 30, 2025 TOR @ NY 94 - 116
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +24.6% more
New York: 4.1 vs Toronto: 3.3
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +8.5%
New York: 40.1% vs Toronto: 31.6%
Field Goal % (L5) +3.8%
New York: 49.6% vs Toronto: 45.8%
Free Throw % (L5) +1.9%
New York: 81.3% vs Toronto: 79.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 100.0 94
NY Score 112.0 116
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 40.1 / 31.6 36.0 / 30.0
Assists 26.3 / 28.7 27.0 / 27.0
Blocks 4.1 / 3.3 3.0 / 6.0
Field Goal % 49.6 / 45.8 46.0 / 42.0
Free Throw % 81.3 / 79.4 75.0 / 53.0
Rebounding 42.9 / 47.0 61.0 / 40.0
Steals 9.0 / 8.5 9.0 / 9.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 14.3 18.0 / 18.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
45%MONEY55%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
10%MONEY90%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
49-40-0 (55.1%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
NY Advantage
70-32-0 (68.6%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
46-43-0 (51.7%)
Margin: 2.5 ATS +/-: +1.4
NY Advantage
58-44-0 (56.9%)
Margin: 8.0 ATS +/-: +3.5
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
37-52-0
O: 41.6% / U: 58.4% Total +/-: -1.8
NY
47-55-0
O: 46.1% / U: 53.9% Total +/-: -1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NY
TOR
NY
TOR
ML
61% 114-72
55% 57-47
56% 57-45
55% 48-39
ATS
67% 124-62
61% 62-40-2
56% 57-45
55% 48-39
TTL
72% 133-53
60% 62-42
100% 102-0
100% 87-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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