Home / NBA Projections NBA / Thunder @ Trail Blazers OKC @ POR

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

19-1  |  Road

123
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 6:00 PM ET
Moda Center
View Odds Details →

PORTLAND

TRAIL BLAZERSPOR

8-11  |  Home

115
AI Model Win Probability
THUNDER
100%
📊
TRAIL BLAZERS
0%
THUNDER --
TRAIL BLAZERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
235.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-15.0
PORTLAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +15.0 points (Portland)
ThunderOKC (-3.5) 0 Trail BlazersPOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Thunder Cover

6.7%

Trail Blazers Cover

93.3%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around POR -15.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (POR)

OKC By 1-7 points

4.8%

OKC By 8-14 points

1.1%

POR By 1-7 points

15.3%

POR By 8-14 points

25.3%

AI Model Projected Score
110
OKLAHOMA CITY
125
PORTLAND
Simulated Score
107
OKLAHOMA CITY
118
PORTLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Trail Blazers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Trail Blazers (+11.5) Win
Proj Spread: -15.0
D
Sim Trail Blazers (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -11.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o233.5 Win
Proj Total: 235.0
D
Sim u233.5 Win
Proj Total: 225.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 31, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 124
Nov 30, 2025 OKC @ POR 123 - 115
Nov 23, 2025 POR @ OKC 95 - 122
Nov 5, 2025 OKC @ POR 119 - 121
Mar 7, 2025 POR @ OKC 89 - 107
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +47.9% more
Portland: 6.8 vs Oklahoma City: 4.6
Turnovers (L5) +47.5% more
Portland: 17.3 vs Oklahoma City: 11.8
Rebounding (L5) +23.0% more
Portland: 48.5 vs Oklahoma City: 39.4
Steals (L5) +35.1% more
Oklahoma City: 9.6 vs Portland: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OKC Score 110.0 123
POR Score 125.0 115
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 30.9 / 40.9 33.0 / 34.0
Assists 22.9 / 26.7 22.0 / 27.0
Blocks 6.8 / 4.6 5.0 / 9.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 50.2 39.0 / 49.0
Free Throw % 71.4 / 81.5 78.0 / 78.0
Rebounding 48.5 / 39.4 49.0 / 49.0
Steals 6.3 / 9.6 8.0 / 7.0
Turnovers 17.3 / 11.8 14.0 / 12.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
92%TICKETS8%
64%MONEY36%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
67%MONEY33%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
55%MONEY45%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
POR
44-44-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OKC
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
POR Advantage
46-42-0 (52.3%)
Margin: -0.9 ATS +/-: -0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
POR
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
POR
OKC
POR
OKC
ML
53% 56-49
70% 80-34
55% 49-40
48% 46-49
ATS
62% 65-39-1
73% 83-30-1
55% 49-40
48% 46-49
TTL
56% 58-46-1
67% 76-38
100% 89-0
100% 95-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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