ATLANTA
HAWKSATL
12-8 | Road
142
PHILADELPHIA
76ERSPHI
10-8 | Home
134
AI Model Win Probability
HAWKS
0%
76ERS
100%
HAWKS
--
76ERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
219.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.0
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.0 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-30-20-100+10+20+30
Distribution centered around ATL -27.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-7 points
2.2%
ATL By 8-14 points
8.0%
PHI By 1-7 points
0.3%
PHI By 8-14 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
123
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
96
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Atlanta
112
ATLANTA
Philadelphia
118
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Hawks
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
76ers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Hawks (-2)
Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Sim
76ers (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u231.0
Loss
Proj Total: 219.0
D
Sim
u231.0
Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Mar 7, 2026
PHI @ ATL
116 - 125
Feb 19, 2026
ATL @ PHI
117 - 107
Dec 14, 2025
PHI @ ATL
117 - 120
Nov 30, 2025
ATL @ PHI
142 - 134
Apr 11, 2025
ATL @ PHI
124 - 110
Key Model Drivers
Assists (L5)
+21.6% more
Atlanta: 33.1
vs
Philadelphia: 26.0
3pt Field Goal % (L5)
+3.8%
Atlanta: 37.4%
vs
Philadelphia: 33.7%
Field Goal % (L5)
+3.6%
Atlanta: 49.9%
vs
Philadelphia: 46.3%
Steals (L5)
+14.2% more
Philadelphia: 9.1
vs
Atlanta: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
123.0
142
PHI Score
96.0
134
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
33.7 / 37.4
23.0 / 33.0
Assists
26.0 / 33.1
26.0 / 36.0
Blocks
6.2 / 5.5
6.0 / 6.0
Field Goal %
46.3 / 49.9
44.0 / 46.0
Free Throw %
85.9 / 72.9
84.0 / 76.0
Rebounding
42.7 / 39.6
46.0 / 58.0
Steals
9.1 / 8.0
14.0 / 10.0
Turnovers
15.3 / 14.3
18.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
48-40-0
(54.6%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHI
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
46-42-0
(52.3%)
Margin: 1.1
ATS +/-: +0.3
PHI
Advantage
50-44-0
(53.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-: -0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
44-44-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +0.1
PHI
44-50-0
O: 46.8% / U: 53.2%
Total +/-: +1.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
ATL
PHI
ATL
ML
63%
69-40
50%
52-52
48%
45-48
55%
48-40
ATS
65%
71-38
53%
55-48-1
48%
45-48
55%
48-40
TTL
55%
60-49
53%
55-48-1
100%
93-0
100%
88-0
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