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MEMPHIS

GRIZZLIESMEM

8-12  |  Road

115
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 9:00 PM ET
Golden 1 Center
View Odds Details →

SACRAMENTO

KINGSSAC

5-15  |  Home

107
AI Model Win Probability
GRIZZLIES
100%
📊
KINGS
0%
GRIZZLIES --
KINGS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
210.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 100%
Under 0 0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-14.0
SACRAMENTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +14.0 points (Sacramento)
GrizzliesMEM (-3.5) 0 KingsSAC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Grizzlies Cover

8.1%

Kings Cover

91.9%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around SAC -14.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (SAC)

MEM By 1-7 points

5.8%

MEM By 8-14 points

1.4%

SAC By 1-7 points

16.9%

SAC By 8-14 points

26.2%

AI Model Projected Score
98
MEMPHIS
112
SACRAMENTO
Simulated Score
112
MEMPHIS
118
SACRAMENTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kings Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Kings Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kings (+3) Loss
Proj Spread: -14.0
D
Sim Kings (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 210.0
D
Sim u232.5 Win
Proj Total: 230.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 23, 2026 SAC @ MEM 123 - 114
Feb 4, 2026 MEM @ SAC 129 - 125
Nov 30, 2025 MEM @ SAC 115 - 107
Nov 20, 2025 SAC @ MEM 96 - 137
Mar 17, 2025 MEM @ SAC 122 - 132
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +30.6% more
Sacramento: 8.7 vs Memphis: 6.7
Blocks (L5) +23.0% more
Memphis: 5.6 vs Sacramento: 4.3
Rebounding (L5) +15.9% more
Memphis: 50.1 vs Sacramento: 42.1
Assists (L5) +15.8% more
Memphis: 30.2 vs Sacramento: 25.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MEM Score 98.0 115
SAC Score 112.0 107
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.0 / 38.2 30.0 / 38.0
Assists 25.4 / 30.2 25.0 / 28.0
Blocks 4.3 / 5.6 7.0 / 7.0
Field Goal % 46.0 / 46.0 46.0 / 52.0
Free Throw % 78.8 / 80.0 59.0 / 73.0
Rebounding 42.1 / 50.1 34.0 / 52.0
Steals 8.7 / 6.7 14.0 / 4.0
Turnovers 12.9 / 13.9 8.0 / 23.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
70%MONEY30%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
92%MONEY8%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MEM Advantage
25-57-0 (30.5%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
SAC
22-60-0 (26.8%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MEM Advantage
37-45-0 (45.1%)
Margin: -6.0 ATS +/-: -0.6
SAC
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -10.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MEM
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +1.4
SAC
43-39-0
O: 52.4% / U: 47.6% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SAC
MEM
SAC
MEM
ML
55% 55-45
57% 59-44
61% 50-32
50% 41-41
ATS
54% 52-45-3
63% 65-38
61% 50-32
50% 41-41
TTL
58% 57-42-1
70% 71-31-1
100% 82-0
100% 82-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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