WASHINGTON
CAPITALSWSH
14-9-2 | Road
4
NEW YORK
ISLANDERSNYI
13-9-3 | Home
1
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Logan Thompson
#48 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Ilya Sorokin
#30 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan Thompson | None-None | 1.00 | 0.968 | -- |
| Ilya Sorokin | None-None | 2.09 | 0.882 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
1.00 Ldr
GAA
2.09
0.968 Ldr
Save %
0.882
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
CAPITALS
0%
ISLANDERS
100%
CAPITALS
--
ISLANDERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
4.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around WSH -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
WSH By 1 goal
17.5%
WSH By 2-3 goals
37.2%
NYI By 1 goal
6.6%
NYI By 2-3 goals
3.7%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
3
WASHINGTON
New York
1
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
Washington
2
WASHINGTON
New York
3
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Capitals
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Islanders
Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Capitals (+1.5)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
D
Sim
Islanders (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 4.0
D
Sim
u6.0
Win
Proj Total: 5.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Feb 2, 2026
NYI @ WSH
1 - 4
Nov 30, 2025
WSH @ NYI
4 - 1
Oct 31, 2025
NYI @ WSH
3 - 1
Oct 11, 2025
WSH @ NYI
4 - 2
Apr 15, 2025
WSH @ NYI
3 - 1
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+9.3% more
Washington: 15.2
vs
New York: 13.8
Takeaways (L5)
+27.8% more
New York: 4.6
vs
Washington: 3.6
Faceoff % (L5)
+6.2%
New York: 51.4%
vs
Washington: 45.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WSH Score
3.0
4
NYI Score
1.0
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
13.8 / 15.2
13.0 / 13.0
Faceoff %
51.4 / 45.2
58.7 / 41.3
Hits
16.6 / 17.5
23.0 / 21.0
Power Play %
8.2 / 8.5
33.3 / 50.0
Shots on Goal
33.1 / 32.8
31.0 / 19.0
Takeaways
4.6 / 3.6
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYI
WSH
NYI
WSH
ML
75%
3-1
100%
3-0
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
50%
2-2
100%
3-0
25%
1-3
67%
2-1
TTL
67%
2-1-1
33%
1-2
100%
3-0-1
33%
1-2
Contextual Game News
Islanders Shuffle Defense Pairings in Wake of Romanov's ACL Tear
Islanders' Blue Line Shake-Up: Three Defenders Who Must Elevate …
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show at Capitals' Home Opener as Washi…
Ovechkin's Sons Steal the Show as Capitals Clip Penguins 5-3 in …
Penguins Embarrassed by Capitals as Turnovers and Disorganizatio…