OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
12-8-4 | Road
1
DALLAS
STARSDAL
16-5-4 | Home
6
Goaltending
GOALTENDER
Linus Ullmark
#35 | Goaltender@
GOALTENDER
Casey DeSmith
#1 | Goaltender| Player | W-L-OTL | GAA | SV% | SO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Linus Ullmark | None-None | 6.00 | 0.769 | -- |
| Casey DeSmith | None-None | 1.00 | 0.938 | -- |
None-None
W-L-OTL
None-None
6.00
GAA
Ldr 1.00
0.769
Save %
Ldr 0.938
--
SO
--
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
STARS
100%
SENATORS
--
STARS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
19.7%
OTT By 2-3 goals
29.6%
DAL By 1 goal
12.1%
DAL By 2-3 goals
9.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Dallas
3
DALLAS
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Dallas
4
DALLAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Stars
Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (-0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
D
Sim
Stars (+0)
Win
Proj Goals: -2.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 30, 2025
OTT @ DAL
1 - 6
Nov 11, 2025
DAL @ OTT
3 - 2
Jan 12, 2025
DAL @ OTT
2 - 3
Jan 2, 2025
OTT @ DAL
2 - 4
Feb 22, 2024
DAL @ OTT
1 - 4
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+20.1% more
Ottawa: 22.5
vs
Dallas: 18.0
Blocked Shots (L5)
+17.9% more
Ottawa: 13.5
vs
Dallas: 11.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+4.4%
Ottawa: 56.6%
vs
Dallas: 52.2%
Power Play % (L5)
+14.7%
Dallas: 27.9%
vs
Ottawa: 13.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
4.0
1
DAL Score
3.0
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Blocked Shots
11.1 / 13.5
11.0 / 9.0
Faceoff %
52.2 / 56.6
49.1 / 50.9
Hits
18.0 / 22.5
21.0 / 31.0
Power Play %
27.9 / 13.2
50.0 / 0.0
Shots on Goal
26.3 / 25.5
26.0 / 16.0
Takeaways
5.3 / 4.9
6.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DAL
OTT
DAL
OTT
ML
50%
2-2
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
ATS
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
75%
3-1
TTL
100%
4-0
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
50%
2-2
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