YALE
BULLDOGSYALE
7-1 | Road
77
VERMONT
CATAMOUNTSUVM
5-4 | Home
74
AI Model Win Probability
BULLDOGS
100%
CATAMOUNTS
0%
BULLDOGS
--
CATAMOUNTS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
112.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
100%
Under 0
0%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.0
VERMONT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.0 points (Vermont)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around UVM -4.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UVM)
YALE By 1-7 points
20.1%
YALE By 8-14 points
9.3%
UVM By 1-7 points
27.4%
UVM By 8-14 points
21.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Yale
54
YALE
Vermont
58
VERMONT
Simulated Score
Yale
69
YALE
Vermont
73
VERMONT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Catamounts
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Catamounts (+6.5)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Sim
Catamounts (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
u147.5
Loss
Proj Total: 112.0
D
Sim
u147.5
Win
Proj Total: 142.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Nov 30, 2025
YALE @ UVM
77 - 74
Dec 7, 2024
UVM @ YALE
50 - 65
Dec 2, 2023
YALE @ UVM
65 - 66
Nov 22, 2022
UVM @ YALE
44 - 73
Nov 19, 2021
YALE @ UVM
53 - 61
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+19.6% more
Vermont: 10.9
vs
Yale: 9.1
Rebounding (L5)
+16.8% more
Vermont: 34.1
vs
Yale: 29.2
Blocks (L5)
+33.3% more
Yale: 3.2
vs
Vermont: 2.1
Steals (L5)
+28.0% more
Yale: 5.2
vs
Vermont: 3.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
YALE Score
54.0
77
UVM Score
58.0
74
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal %
35.3 / 44.6
32.0 / 35.0
Assists
14.4 / 16.7
8.0 / 12.0
Blocks
2.1 / 3.2
1.0 / 0.0
Field Goal %
49.0 / 54.1
49.0 / 49.0
Free Throw %
72.8 / 81.8
77.0 / 77.0
Rebounding
34.1 / 29.2
31.0 / 25.0
Steals
3.7 / 5.2
2.0 / 6.0
Turnovers
10.9 / 9.1
11.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
YALE
Advantage
24-7-0
(77.4%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
UVM
22-12-0
(64.7%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
YALE
Advantage
12-16-1
(42.9%)
Margin: 10.4
ATS +/-: -0.2
UVM
14-19-0
(42.4%)
Margin: 4.9
ATS +/-: -2.4
⚖️ Over/Under
YALE
15-14-0
O: 51.7% / U: 48.3%
Total +/-: +1.1
UVM
16-16-1
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UVM
YALE
UVM
YALE
ML
56%
19-15
48%
15-16
65%
22-12
58%
18-13
ATS
62%
21-13
65%
20-11
65%
22-12
58%
18-13
TTL
47%
16-18
61%
19-12
100%
34-0
100%
31-0
Contextual Game News
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