Home / NCAAB Projections NCAAB / Lakers @ Mountaineers MERC @ WVU

MERCYHURST

LAKERSMERC

3-5  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sun, Nov 30 • 3:00 PM ET
WVU Coliseum
View Odds Details →

WEST VIRGINIA

MOUNTAINEERSWVU

6-2  |  Home

70
AI Model Win Probability
LAKERS
100%
📊
MOUNTAINEERS
0%
LAKERS --
MOUNTAINEERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
128.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.0
WEST VIRGINIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.0 points (West Virginia)
LakersMERC (-3.5) 0 MountaineersWVU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Lakers Cover

27.4%

Mountaineers Cover

72.6%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around WVU -6.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WVU)

MERC By 1-7 points

16.9%

MERC By 8-14 points

6.8%

WVU By 1-7 points

26.8%

WVU By 8-14 points

24.3%

AI Model Projected Score
61
MERCYHURST
67
WEST VIRGINIA
Simulated Score
55
MERCYHURST
82
WEST VIRGINIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Mountaineers Win
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.0
D
Sim Mountaineers (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 128.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 137.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 30, 2025 MERC @ WVU 38 - 70
Dec 22, 2024 MERC @ WVU 46 - 67
Key Model Drivers
Blocks (L5) +15.3% more
West Virginia: 3.5 vs Mercyhurst: 3.0
Free Throw % (L5) +7.8%
West Virginia: 71.3% vs Mercyhurst: 63.6%
3pt Field Goal % (L5) +4.3%
West Virginia: 33.9% vs Mercyhurst: 29.6%
Steals (L5) +13.3% more
Mercyhurst: 7.3 vs West Virginia: 6.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MERC Score 61.0 38
WVU Score 67.0 70
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 33.9 / 29.6 28.0 / 38.0
Assists 12.8 / 13.3 15.0 / 6.0
Blocks 3.5 / 3.0 3.0 / 2.0
Field Goal % 43.4 / 45.7 47.0 / 33.0
Free Throw % 71.3 / 63.6 65.0 / 13.0
Rebounding 33.9 / 33.2 44.0 / 27.0
Steals 6.3 / 7.3 8.0 / 3.0
Turnovers 9.9 / 11.0 10.0 / 15.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
20%TICKETS80%
23%MONEY77%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MERC
17-17-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
WVU Advantage
21-14-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MERC Advantage
21-11-0 (65.6%)
Margin: 2.0 ATS +/-: +2.4
WVU
18-17-0 (51.4%)
Margin: 4.9 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MERC
16-16-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.7
WVU
13-21-1
O: 38.2% / U: 61.8% Total +/-: -1.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WVU
MERC
WVU
MERC
ML
63% 22-13
59% 20-14
76% 26-8
79% 26-7
ATS
60% 21-14
62% 21-13
76% 26-8
79% 26-7
TTL
40% 14-21
53% 18-16
100% 34-0
100% 33-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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